Monday, March 24, 2003

Lecture on lebanon to a VCU class in Richmond

Lebanon Lecture Outine
VCU Campus, Richmond, March 24, 03


Political profile of Lebanon:

- Emerging from civil war with political amnesia, poor memory of what happened in crisis of fifteen years of communal fighting.

- Reconciliation is social and existential, but not spiritual or moral
- Lebanon has become just another Arab country with less trust in its future and silenced by political quietism.

- Political leadership contrasts with technological endowment

- Lebanon is dependent too much on resolution of major issues in region:
Rule of law, Palestinian problem, and regional impotence in political leadership. We need new Lebanese leaders like Gibran, Ralph Nader and Antoun Saadeh.

Lebanon short history: a politically grafted country like Kuwait, Jordan, Libya and Israel: a product of modern historical events. Lebanon was part of Syria during four centuries until 1920. Rational for Lebanon is “home for Christians”; rationale for Israel is “home for the Jews”. But demography, secularism, human rights and nation state ideology make the “faith-based nation” a contradiction.

Lebanon Unique: Lebanon is a unique country in the Arab world: Mediator for Arab/Western relations and a laboratory for social change:

a. Parliamentary life: some participatory voting

b. Civic society: political parties active but poorly organized, private non profit organizations thriving

c. Liberation politics: Arab secular nationalism and Palestinian national resistance live side by side with sectarian politics

d. Sectarian Power sharing of communities is an experiment in diversity but with a fault line:
- Christian President and Muslim Prime minister
- 50% Muslim and 50% Christian parliament
- Distribution of seats according to demography
- Chief of army Christian

The cantonal system or the federal formula in power sharing works well in countries where there is economic prosperity, high level of education, some form of socialism and a stable demography. Lebanon balance of power among sectarian communities is vulnerable to 1. Demographic shifts, 2. Manipulative hands of religious leaders and 3. Economic crises of minorities which become excuse for destabilizing the system.

Rapid social change within a context of contradiction:
- Lebanon is a country of banks, bikinis and baggy pants and of veils and short skirts. In one part of the country you can imagine yourself being in southern France and in another it feels like any overcrowded urban low resource environment.
- Lebanon has over thirty universities for a population of five millions: e.g. AUB and Saint Joseph University. Education of children is sacred for the parents of Lebanon. Illiteracy is are.

- Lebanon has a vibrant seven-million Diaspora community which includes many people in power or with economic resources: e.g. current US Secretary of Energy, Abrahams, Ralph Nader, former HHS Secretary Dona Shalala, the Swiss Swatch company owner, the actress Selma Hayek and three recent former ex presidents of Ecuador, Columbia and Argentina and former Mayor of Saw Paulo. Richmond for example, has several thousand Lebanese who go to the St Anthony Catholic church and who are almost totally assimilated. One single street corner in Richmond (on Parham Rd), for example, has the largest pharmacy, the largest dentist office and a large law firm whose owners are Lebanese emigrants. Dearborn Michigan has sixty thousand Lebanese. These emigrants help their families in Lebanon but they resist investing in home land due to political uncertainty.

Service and financial capital of the Arab world:
- Tourism, banks, lawyers, doctors, engineers, teachers serve the Arab world
- The AUB has generated hundreds of thousand of leaders over the last one hundred fifty years
- Beirut College for Women same influence

Market economy without sufficient income redistributive measures.
-Tax evasion, government corruption and illegal income are major social problems.

- You can buy anything in Lebanon markets, easy transactions in real estate, air lines etc

Decorative army:
Army is large but inefficient. Has rarely been used to defend national interests, preserve unity under stress, protect border with Israel, or to challenge other forms of regional intervention.

Regional influence
Syria’s presence in Lebanon and Israel Occupation of a small piece of land; Presence of 300 000 Palestinian refugees. Loyalty to Iran and to Islamic fundamentalism remains a problem; but it has been politicized for resistance for national defense.

Reconstruction and tourism after 1990:
- Beirut and other cities and villages have been rebuilt in ten years.
Sandy Beaches and night clubs and fancy restaurants attract regional tourists. Theater, art and cultural life are very active in Lebanon. The air port is at European standards, rebuilt with millions of borrowed money. The mountains of Lebanon have “green village” beauty which should draw millions of tourists from around the world. But now only Gulf oil rich visitors appreciate Lebanon, especially after 9/11 events. National debt has grown to thirty billion dollars, about 100 % of GNP. Social reconstruction is a disappointment.

Emigration of youth and minorities
- Youth leave for Europe, the US and all over the world
- Minorities like Armenians and European and US residents left in great numbers.

Future political prospects:

Lessons about power sharing, secularism and national unity building have not been learned or transmitted to new generation. The fate of Lebanon is tied to fate or region. The fate of the region is tied to fate of new world order. There is no new world order yet. The cold war world regime has been replaced by the superpower regime. If we are going to reform world order through war, history tells us, this is not the way. Social justice and rule of law go hand in hand.

Sunday, March 02, 2003

US Iraq War's Impact on Region

US Iraq War’s Impact on Region

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz, March 2 2003.

It seems that we are heading for an US led war against Iraq to unseat Saddam, disarm regime and replace it:
US declared intention were to avoid risk of weapons of mass destruction, to liberate Iraqis and to set an example to other regimes with similar inclinations. Not articulated bluntly is the intention to intervene militarily in other neighboring countries to maintain stability and enhance democracy in region.
I am sharing with you my observations about the cost of this looming war on Iraq and the impact on the region. To organize my ideas I am asking five central questions around this war that I will try to answer.
Question one: What is the cost and benefit of this war to Iraq to the US and to world peace?
Question two: Is the US able to install democracy in Iraq?
Question three: Is the war a product of new foreign policy in the region?
Question four: Is Islam compatible with democracy?
Question five: What do we hope for if war takes place?



Question One: The cost and benefit analysis
A. Projected Cost:
- Hundreds of thousands killed or injured, mostly Iraqis
- One to two millions refugees and displaced are estimated by UN reports.
- Threat of division of country into cantons of irreconcilable interests: Kurdistan, Shii Islamic republic and Sunni tribal community (oil, identity, land and leadership)
- Regional interventions by Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia
- Spill over political effects on unstable regimes: SA, Egypt and Jordan
- Massive regional and Islamic world anger: 1967 Nakba
- Economic cost for US: 100 billion dollars?
- Moral agony for about half the people of this nation
All the above are not certain, but they are reasonable threats
B. Projected Benefits: Only first two events look certain
- Liberation from Saddam
- Removal of threat of WMD
- Possible Pilot project of democracy building?
- Preparation of climate for Peace process for Israel/ Palestine conflict?

When I calculate the cost and the benefit I come up with a big deficit and I ask the rhetorical question why not disarm Saddam without going to war. We can do it and it is taking place now. To speak about improving climate for Palestine statehood talks is infuriating to Arabs as they watch on TV the assault on Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank daily by ruling Israeli forces.
Question Two: Is the US capable of installing democracy in Iraq?
- Empirical studies of democracy building show that the process is difficult, takes decades and is often flawed
- US political and economic interests have often interfered with democracy efforts (see Thomas Carothers book: “Aiding Democracy Abroad: learning curve, Carnegie 1999) US interests in Iraq include oil, regime loyalty and regime docility of a re-patched federal Iraq
- The humiliation of war do not help the people attacked to “shape up” spontaneously
- American type of democracy building is culturally questionable today in current political climate
- Democracy building requires some degree of unity within the country to arrange power sharing formula and rule of law. Revenge of civil war, sectarianism and tribal loyalty are among major threats to democracy. The “no fly zone” has dissected the country into three rival communities.

Conclusion: I expect a US loyal, desperate Iraq state will emerge from the war mess; the US will be motivated to call this state democratic.

Question Three: Is Iraq war a product of a new foreign policy in region?
Answer is yes and no. What is new is the invasion of an Arab country to deal with growing instability of region. What is not new is the lack of adequate response to the needs of the region, lack of sensitivity to the culture and poor reading of the history of the region.
The shift in US foreign policy to the Arab world is in degree and not in kind. The shift is from a paradigm of diplomatic and political containment of instability to managing militarily. According to former US Ambassador to Iraq, Mr. Joseph Wilson, in a recent interview with Bill Moyers (WETA, Feb 28), the new policy of the US is the design of Mr. Richard Pearl, a strong and passionate supporter of Israeli interests. Pearl, apparently, believes that to solve the Arab Israeli problems you ought to change non-cooperative Arab regimes. Bush’s government is now dominated by Sharon-policy sympathizers, including Mr. Elliot Abraham and Mr. Paul Wolfowitz.



Question Four: Is Islam compatible with Democracy?

- The problem of autocracy in Muslim countries is an artifact of Muslim men’s style of rule, and not a result of Muslim faith. It may be true that there is a crisis of theology in Islam as a result of political dominance of tribal rule. The Islam I know (and I am not a Muslim), is about freedom and equality in principle. Read Sufi literature (Jamal el din El Rumi) and see the celebration of diversity in Islam. Sufism today is marginal in the Muslim world for political reasons. Read about the concept of “Ijtihad” in relation to “Jihad” and discover the power of reason in Islam (Passion for Islam). For eighteen centuries the Christian west suffered the same level of oppression as a result of literal interpretation of religion to suit the Holy Empire and the Divine Right theory of rulers. Islam will face its intellectual renaissance when the right socio economic conditions come to pass.
- The change is in the wind but the Arab world is slowly inching its way toward modernity. Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Jordan, Tunis are moving forward in small but significant steps toward democracy.
- Islam must be allowed to experiment with its own experience of democracy. Regimes will come and go with free elections; experience will lead Muslims to creative rule of law with time. Read Passion for Islam by Caryle Murphey, 2002, a Pulitzer Prize winner.
Comment: I observe a Christian right campaign on TV addressed to Islam and Muslims. End of the world theology predicts Jesus with a sword returning to Israel soon to save the believers. Arabs are classified in apocalyptic theology to be on the losing side in Armageddon war. Christian Fundamentalism is very dangerous but surprisingly ignored as a minority movement. Christian Zionist theology reinforces Muslim fanatic theology.
Questions five: What do we hope for if war takes place?
For Iraq
- The war will be short and carnage limited
- Iraq will retain some form of unity
- The US army will turn over the administration to a United Nation or multilateral force in transition period
- Commitment to external development aid will not turn to exploitation of Iraq oil revenues for funding reconstruction
- Iraqi capable leadership will take over from external forces soon enough
- A new authentic government will lead the reconstruction process
- Iraq’s debt programming will not cripple its budget

For the Region:
- A viable peace process for Palestine statehood and Israeli security emerges. Colin Powel will have to rescue the ME peace process from the hands of the “Lukednics” dominating the State Department today on ME policy.
_ Syria reclaims its Golan Heights and signs peace with Israel
- An Arab Israeli peace process will lead to a new era of regional development.
It is somehow inconsistent to list the above wish list items, given the current views of the US Administration on ME realities. But America is about learning and change. This is why we are proud to be Americans. Hope keeps us going.