Lebanon, Hezbollah futute are in Syria's balance

Published in Palm Beach Post on Monday March 3, 2014

Lebanon’s fate lies in Syria’s future

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz

It took ten months for Lebanon to form a new government.  This lengthy delay is symptomatic of rising national tension. At the center of debate is the military participation of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and rival, Jihadi groups in Syria’s war.

The Lebanese share power in peculiar ways.  Half the parliament belongs to a Christian community of various denominations. The other half is Muslim: Sunnites, Shiites, Druze and Alawites. The President has to be a Maronite - Catholic, the Prime Minister a Sunnite and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shiite.

Many of Lebanon’s current leaders are former patrons of a civil war which ended in 1990 through Saudi-led mediation. Riyadh and Tehran influence Beirut with money, ideology and weapons.

In preparing for upcoming presidential elections in May, the new cabinet is trying to reach a consensus that Lebanon take a neutral stance in Syria’s conflict.

If suicide Jihadi explosions continue to target Hezbollah and the wider Lebanese Shiite communities, the next president would not be smoothly elected.

When the Syrian uprising erupted many Lebanese hoped it would lead to the swift removal of President Assad. But the rebellion morphed into a civil war threatening the entire region. Many support but few admire Assad.

The United Nations has already registered 935 000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Lebanon’s four-million population hosts close to a million Syrians and half a million Palestinians - the latter displaced by the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948.

Hezbollah has an interesting history. This movement was formed to resist the 1982 Israeli invasion. This invasion led to an 18-year occupation of south Lebanon, the home territory of a marginalized Shiite community.  Israel invaded its northern neighbor to liquidate the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) which was conducting provocative operations from Lebanon against the Zionist state.  The PLO failed its military mission in Lebanon and elsewhere, but Hezbollah managed to end Israel’s 1982 occupation in 2000. Hezbollah gradually replaced the PLO as a self-assigned “protector” of Lebanon and “defender” of future Palestine.  

Basking in local and regional popularity, Hezbollah refused to disarm after Israel’s departure and evolved into a state-within-a-state. It expanded humanitarian services and diversified, competing in elections and assuming cabinet positions. Hezbollah is now the dominant political party in Lebanon and an active partner of Assad.  For admirers, Hezbollah, the Party of God, is known as “The Resistance.”  For critics, this party is an illegitimate, Iran-funded, Shiite militia.

Hezbollah’s first miscalculation may have been taking on Israel as its own primary adversary, “until victory.” Its ideologues should know better: Israel could only be contained through Arab unified action and pluralist state building, not through questionable, outmoded, poorly planned, asymmetrical use of force.  

Hezbollah’s second miscalculation may have been its participation in the Syrian civil war. By fighting along with the Syrian regime Hezbollah antagonizes most Syrians, many Lebanese and the majority of Sunnis. The Resistance also risks devastating defeat should the balance of power in Syria change in favor of the opposition.

Hezbollah is not ideologically committed to President Assad. It pragmatically supports Damascus rulers to survive and protect the Shiite communities in Lebanon and Syria from likely revenge, should this ruler be ousted militarily.

There are additional concerns. Hezbollah’s fighting in Syria has unintentionally revived militarism among Lebanon’s rival communities.  Since renewed civil war in Lebanon is no longer unimaginable, the Lebanese Forces (a previously demilitarized Maronite militia) has covertly remobilized to “defend” the Christian community; other groups are, with increasing frequency, committing suicide acts to “defend Sunni Islam” in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq; and Palestinian refugees carry arms to protect their camps.

In three stages and three years, the conflict in Syria has progressed from a peaceful uprising to a local civil war, and lately to a regional sectarian conflict. This Syrian based, wider conflict is now between insecure Gulf State Sunnite leaders and Iran’s clerical hierarchy.   Never has Hezbollah been as vulnerable to local and regional enemies as it is today. And never has the country, which Hezbollah was created to protect, been as exposed.

Is there any sign of hope?  With luck, international diplomacy could save Lebanon. The Syrian conflict could be resolved politically if the ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran succeed.

Should Syria’s conflict end in 2014, Hezbollah could survive as a political party, swallow its pride and integrate its military wing with the Lebanese army. With progress in Syria, Lebanon may have a new president and a better future.