Sunday, March 02, 2003

US Iraq War's Impact on Region

US Iraq War’s Impact on Region

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz, March 2 2003.

It seems that we are heading for an US led war against Iraq to unseat Saddam, disarm regime and replace it:
US declared intention were to avoid risk of weapons of mass destruction, to liberate Iraqis and to set an example to other regimes with similar inclinations. Not articulated bluntly is the intention to intervene militarily in other neighboring countries to maintain stability and enhance democracy in region.
I am sharing with you my observations about the cost of this looming war on Iraq and the impact on the region. To organize my ideas I am asking five central questions around this war that I will try to answer.
Question one: What is the cost and benefit of this war to Iraq to the US and to world peace?
Question two: Is the US able to install democracy in Iraq?
Question three: Is the war a product of new foreign policy in the region?
Question four: Is Islam compatible with democracy?
Question five: What do we hope for if war takes place?

Question One: The cost and benefit analysis
A. Projected Cost:
- Hundreds of thousands killed or injured, mostly Iraqis
- One to two millions refugees and displaced are estimated by UN reports.
- Threat of division of country into cantons of irreconcilable interests: Kurdistan, Shii Islamic republic and Sunni tribal community (oil, identity, land and leadership)
- Regional interventions by Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia
- Spill over political effects on unstable regimes: SA, Egypt and Jordan
- Massive regional and Islamic world anger: 1967 Nakba
- Economic cost for US: 100 billion dollars?
- Moral agony for about half the people of this nation
All the above are not certain, but they are reasonable threats
B. Projected Benefits: Only first two events look certain
- Liberation from Saddam
- Removal of threat of WMD
- Possible Pilot project of democracy building?
- Preparation of climate for Peace process for Israel/ Palestine conflict?

When I calculate the cost and the benefit I come up with a big deficit and I ask the rhetorical question why not disarm Saddam without going to war. We can do it and it is taking place now. To speak about improving climate for Palestine statehood talks is infuriating to Arabs as they watch on TV the assault on Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank daily by ruling Israeli forces.
Question Two: Is the US capable of installing democracy in Iraq?
- Empirical studies of democracy building show that the process is difficult, takes decades and is often flawed
- US political and economic interests have often interfered with democracy efforts (see Thomas Carothers book: “Aiding Democracy Abroad: learning curve, Carnegie 1999) US interests in Iraq include oil, regime loyalty and regime docility of a re-patched federal Iraq
- The humiliation of war do not help the people attacked to “shape up” spontaneously
- American type of democracy building is culturally questionable today in current political climate
- Democracy building requires some degree of unity within the country to arrange power sharing formula and rule of law. Revenge of civil war, sectarianism and tribal loyalty are among major threats to democracy. The “no fly zone” has dissected the country into three rival communities.

Conclusion: I expect a US loyal, desperate Iraq state will emerge from the war mess; the US will be motivated to call this state democratic.

Question Three: Is Iraq war a product of a new foreign policy in region?
Answer is yes and no. What is new is the invasion of an Arab country to deal with growing instability of region. What is not new is the lack of adequate response to the needs of the region, lack of sensitivity to the culture and poor reading of the history of the region.
The shift in US foreign policy to the Arab world is in degree and not in kind. The shift is from a paradigm of diplomatic and political containment of instability to managing militarily. According to former US Ambassador to Iraq, Mr. Joseph Wilson, in a recent interview with Bill Moyers (WETA, Feb 28), the new policy of the US is the design of Mr. Richard Pearl, a strong and passionate supporter of Israeli interests. Pearl, apparently, believes that to solve the Arab Israeli problems you ought to change non-cooperative Arab regimes. Bush’s government is now dominated by Sharon-policy sympathizers, including Mr. Elliot Abraham and Mr. Paul Wolfowitz.

Question Four: Is Islam compatible with Democracy?

- The problem of autocracy in Muslim countries is an artifact of Muslim men’s style of rule, and not a result of Muslim faith. It may be true that there is a crisis of theology in Islam as a result of political dominance of tribal rule. The Islam I know (and I am not a Muslim), is about freedom and equality in principle. Read Sufi literature (Jamal el din El Rumi) and see the celebration of diversity in Islam. Sufism today is marginal in the Muslim world for political reasons. Read about the concept of “Ijtihad” in relation to “Jihad” and discover the power of reason in Islam (Passion for Islam). For eighteen centuries the Christian west suffered the same level of oppression as a result of literal interpretation of religion to suit the Holy Empire and the Divine Right theory of rulers. Islam will face its intellectual renaissance when the right socio economic conditions come to pass.
- The change is in the wind but the Arab world is slowly inching its way toward modernity. Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Jordan, Tunis are moving forward in small but significant steps toward democracy.
- Islam must be allowed to experiment with its own experience of democracy. Regimes will come and go with free elections; experience will lead Muslims to creative rule of law with time. Read Passion for Islam by Caryle Murphey, 2002, a Pulitzer Prize winner.
Comment: I observe a Christian right campaign on TV addressed to Islam and Muslims. End of the world theology predicts Jesus with a sword returning to Israel soon to save the believers. Arabs are classified in apocalyptic theology to be on the losing side in Armageddon war. Christian Fundamentalism is very dangerous but surprisingly ignored as a minority movement. Christian Zionist theology reinforces Muslim fanatic theology.
Questions five: What do we hope for if war takes place?
For Iraq
- The war will be short and carnage limited
- Iraq will retain some form of unity
- The US army will turn over the administration to a United Nation or multilateral force in transition period
- Commitment to external development aid will not turn to exploitation of Iraq oil revenues for funding reconstruction
- Iraqi capable leadership will take over from external forces soon enough
- A new authentic government will lead the reconstruction process
- Iraq’s debt programming will not cripple its budget

For the Region:
- A viable peace process for Palestine statehood and Israeli security emerges. Colin Powel will have to rescue the ME peace process from the hands of the “Lukednics” dominating the State Department today on ME policy.
_ Syria reclaims its Golan Heights and signs peace with Israel
- An Arab Israeli peace process will lead to a new era of regional development.
It is somehow inconsistent to list the above wish list items, given the current views of the US Administration on ME realities. But America is about learning and change. This is why we are proud to be Americans. Hope keeps us going.


Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, tiffany and co jewelry, tiffany jewelry, prada handbags, oakley sunglasses, coach outlet store online, longchamp outlet online, michael kors outlet online, kate spade outlet online, coach purses, tory burch outlet, louboutin shoes, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, cheap oakley sunglasses, michael kors outlet online, ray ban sunglasses, coach outlet, michael kors outlet, louis vuitton handbags, michael kors outlet online, coach outlet, longchamp handbags, ray ban outlet, polo ralph lauren, nike air max, jordan shoes, burberry outlet online, prada outlet, louis vuitton outlet, chanel handbags, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet store, christian louboutin shoes, gucci handbags, christian louboutin outlet, burberry outlet online, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton outlet online, oakley vault, nike free, louis vuitton outlet, kate spade handbags, nike shoes, red bottom shoes

8:30 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

vans pas cher, nike air force, converse pas cher, north face, tn pas cher, true religion, ralph lauren pas cher, sac michael kors, mulberry, lululemon, air max pas cher, hermes pas cher, scarpe hogan, nike roshe run, true religion outlet, lacoste pas cher, ralph lauren, nike air max, michael kors canada, burberry pas cher, air max, nike blazer pas cher, guess pas cher, oakley pas cher, true religion outlet, longchamp, ray ban pas cher, hollister, chaussure louboutin, ray ban uk, longchamp pas cher, louis vuitton pas cher, new balance pas cher, sac vanessa bruno, michael kors uk, nike air max, nike free pas cher, timberland, louis vuitton, north face pas cher, air jordan, sac louis vuitton, hollister, louis vuitton uk, nike free

8:31 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

giuseppe zanotti, herve leger, soccer shoes, reebok shoes, instyler ionic styler, roshe run, babyliss pro, beats headphones, soccer jerseys, ugg, nike trainers, abercrombie and fitch, asics shoes, mcm handbags, nike roshe, north face outlet, ferragamo shoes, barbour, ghd, jimmy choo shoes, ugg soldes, north face jackets, valentino shoes, uggs outlet, longchamp, bottega veneta, wedding dresses, marc jacobs outlet, celine handbags, nike huarache, nfl jerseys, chi flat iron, rolex watches, hollister, new balance outlet, vans outlet, p90x workout, mont blanc pens, abercrombie and fitch, ugg outlet, lululemon outlet, mac cosmetics, insanity workout, birkin bag, uggs on sale

8:32 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

canada goose outlet, converse shoes, nike air max, ugg, hollister clothing, ralph lauren, canada goose, hollister canada, lancel, karen millen, coach outlet, replica watches, iphone 6 case, timberland shoes, uggs canada, gucci, hollister, louboutin, canada goose pas cher, canada goose outlet, oakley, juicy couture outlet, moncler, canada goose, wedding dress, moncler, air max, converse, moncler, canada goose, moncler outlet, supra shoes, louis vuitton canada, parajumpers outlet, montre femme, moncler, ray ban, toms outlet, moncler, canada goose outlet, baseball bats, canada goose uk, vans, ugg boots, juicy couture outlet, moncler

8:34 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

burberry outlet, nike free, oakley sunglasses wholesale, gucci handbags, longchamp outlet, replica watches, oakley sunglasses, nike air max, ray ban sunglasses, christian louboutin uk, ugg boots, nike air max, polo ralph lauren outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, ray ban sunglasses, kate spade outlet, tiffany jewelry, michael kors outlet, uggs outlet, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet, nike outlet, michael kors outlet online, prada handbags, christian louboutin shoes, louis vuitton outlet, christian louboutin, jordan shoes, polo outlet, cheap oakley sunglasses, burberry handbags, christian louboutin outlet, tory burch outlet, michael kors outlet online, longchamp outlet, uggs on sale, longchamp outlet, michael kors outlet store, tiffany and co, prada outlet, ugg boots, chanel handbags, uggs outlet, louis vuitton, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton, louis vuitton outlet, replica watches

12:32 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

michael kors, converse pas cher, new balance, north face uk, true religion outlet, nike roshe, sac hermes, nike tn, true religion jeans, timberland pas cher, vans pas cher, michael kors outlet, mulberry uk, coach purses, nike roshe run uk, nike free uk, lululemon canada, michael kors pas cher, nike blazer pas cher, oakley pas cher, nike air max, polo lacoste, polo ralph lauren, nike air max uk, abercrombie and fitch uk, hollister uk, nike free run, longchamp pas cher, north face, hollister pas cher, hogan outlet, true religion outlet, ralph lauren uk, michael kors, jordan pas cher, air max, sac vanessa bruno, guess pas cher, nike air max uk, kate spade, louboutin pas cher, ray ban uk, ray ban pas cher, burberry pas cher, coach outlet, nike air force, coach outlet store online, sac longchamp pas cher, coach outlet, true religion outlet

12:38 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

vans, ralph lauren, giuseppe zanotti outlet, nike roshe run, ray ban, p90x workout, herve leger, asics running shoes, nike air max, timberland boots, ghd hair, reebok outlet, new balance shoes, north face outlet, iphone 6 cases, mac cosmetics, wedding dresses, nike trainers uk, converse outlet, celine handbags, lululemon, hollister clothing, soccer jerseys, instyler, longchamp uk, converse, soccer shoes, babyliss, insanity workout, beats by dre, gucci, north face outlet, vans outlet, abercrombie and fitch, hermes belt, ferragamo shoes, hollister, bottega veneta, nike huaraches, nike air max, louboutin, jimmy choo outlet, valentino shoes, baseball bats, nfl jerseys, chi flat iron, oakley, mcm handbags, hollister, mont blanc pens

12:42 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

karen millen uk, doudoune moncler, canada goose, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton, moncler, moncler, replica watches, pandora uk, pandora charms, swarovski crystal, ugg uk, coach outlet, michael kors handbags, canada goose outlet, moncler, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, ugg, canada goose outlet, marc jacobs, pandora jewelry, lancel, wedding dresses, moncler, moncler outlet, links of london, moncler outlet, barbour uk, canada goose outlet, canada goose uk, doke gabbana, michael kors outlet, barbour, louis vuitton, louis vuitton, canada goose, supra shoes, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, canada goose jackets, canada goose, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, swarovski, hollister, toms shoes, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, pandora jewelry, ugg pas cher, thomas sabo, moncler uk, montre pas cher

12:48 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

ray ban sunglasses, nike air max, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, true religion outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet online, replica watches, true religion outlet, tiffany and co, kate spade outlet, polo outlet, jordan shoes, nike air max, cheap oakley sunglasses, true religion outlet, nike outlet, oakley sunglasses wholesale, longchamp outlet, gucci handbags, replica handbags, christian louboutin shoes, oakley sunglasses, ugg boots, louis vuitton outlet, replica watches, louis vuitton outlet, louis vuitton outlet, longchamp outlet, tory burch outlet, tiffany jewelry, prada outlet, nike air max, oakley sunglasses, coach purses, ray ban sunglasses, true religion jeans, uggs on sale, christian louboutin, coach outlet, christian louboutin uk, oakley sunglasses, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton, nike free

10:50 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

michael kors outlet, air max, ray ban uk, lululemon canada, michael kors pas cher, converse pas cher, vans pas cher, polo lacoste, longchamp pas cher, burberry outlet, jordan pas cher, burberry pas cher, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet online, oakley pas cher, hogan outlet, michael kors outlet online, uggs outlet, michael kors outlet, sac vanessa bruno, nike tn, nike free uk, new balance, nike blazer pas cher, north face, sac longchamp pas cher, nike free run, nike roshe, burberry handbags, louboutin pas cher, nike air max uk, hollister uk, sac hermes, timberland pas cher, polo ralph lauren, mulberry uk, nike air max uk, ralph lauren uk, abercrombie and fitch uk, ray ban pas cher, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet, uggs outlet, nike roshe run uk, guess pas cher, north face uk, hollister pas cher

10:55 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

celine handbags, instyler, nfl jerseys, hollister, nike trainers uk, beats by dre, soccer jerseys, s6 case, mac cosmetics, mont blanc pens, asics running shoes, hollister clothing, hermes belt, mcm handbags, ghd hair, iphone 6s cases, nike air max, ferragamo shoes, nike roshe run, p90x workout, chi flat iron, ipad cases, bottega veneta, iphone 6s plus cases, iphone 6 plus cases, wedding dresses, baseball bats, iphone cases, lululemon, herve leger, babyliss, oakley, reebok outlet, new balance shoes, valentino shoes, iphone 6 cases, abercrombie and fitch, timberland boots, ralph lauren, longchamp uk, louboutin, jimmy choo outlet, north face outlet, vans outlet, north face outlet, insanity workout, nike huaraches, giuseppe zanotti outlet, iphone 5s cases, soccer shoes

10:58 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

ugg, canada goose jackets, replica watches, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, converse, pandora charms, louis vuitton, moncler, pandora jewelry, canada goose outlet, pandora uk, canada goose, pandora jewelry, canada goose, louis vuitton, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, thomas sabo, nike air max, barbour uk, converse outlet, swarovski crystal, canada goose outlet, swarovski, supra shoes, karen millen uk, hollister, juicy couture outlet, moncler, moncler outlet, barbour, ugg pas cher, ugg uk, moncler uk, moncler, canada goose outlet, louis vuitton, hollister, gucci, toms shoes, marc jacobs, ray ban, canada goose uk, lancel, moncler, doudoune moncler, coach outlet, links of london, moncler outlet, canada goose, montre pas cher, wedding dresses

11:01 PM  
Anonymous Cara Mengobati Sistitis Secara Alami said...

Nice Article ;)

Pengobatan Efektif Atasi Masitis
Pengobatan Infeksi Kulit Selulitis
Obat Untuk Sembuhkan Radang Rahim
Pengobatan Atasi Aritmia
Cara Mengobati Ablesio Retina Tanpa Operasi
Pengobatan Untuk Mengatasi Infeksi Rahim

5:53 PM  
Blogger شركات كشف تسربات المياه وعزل اسطح وخزانات said...

نقل اثاث
طرق نقل اثاث بالرياض
شركة نقل اثاث بجازان
نقل اثاث بحائل
نقل اثاث بخميس مشيط
نقل اثاث بالرياض 300 ريال
نقل اثاث بالمدينة المنورة
نقل عفش بالمدينة

11:36 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home