Current Arab elections are theatrical

Current Arab elections are theatrical

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz

May 21, 2014, Washington DC.

 

Five Arab countries (Syria, Egypt, Algeria, Iraq and Lebanon) elect their top political leaders this spring under dubious circumstances. Political business is returning to “normal”. And normal politics in the Arab world is far from being so.  It is as if the Arab Spring has not taken place, or it has no permanent impact on the future.

These electoral events have the attributes of political comedy which covers up tragic reality.  Let us first look at Syria. President Bashar al Assad runs for presidential elections on June 3, for a third seven-year term. He ignores the fact that his father governed Syria for 30 years before his 14 years of a tight-fisted reign, which caused a national uprising three years ago.  The uprising morphed into a civil war; the initial peaceful rebellion was met with state brutality. The elections are taking place in an environment of a catastrophic civil war which has, so far, displaced half the population, created 1.5 million refugees and killed 160 thousand people.  Sadly, Assad acts as the savior of a broken society; he sees the next election as legitimizing the extension of his mandate.

In Egypt General Abdel Fattah al Sisi is running for elections on May 26.  Sisi resigned from the position of head of the military after staging a coup against an unpopular, albeit democratically elected president: Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. A military government now manages the country with brutal rules against political dissent.

Both Sisi and Assad are expected to win these two rigged elections.

In Algeria President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika won a third term in April. Bouteflika’s legitimacy should have expired by now due to longevity of service, corruption and poor health. The ailing leader is now a figure head in a political system buttressed by the army and a civilian elite of old time opportunists.

In Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki, who has been in power for eight years, won enough seats in the parliamentary elections which took place on April 30. Maliki has won a third term but he continues to face strong opposition from all sectors of society. Maliki is not as ruthless as Saddam Hussein, but he is viewed as a tyrant by the Iraqi Sunnite community. He is also disliked by a large section of his own Shiite community.  Iraq has been in a continuing sectarian civil war, where Sunnites oppose the dominance of Shiite leadership. 

In Lebanon the circumstances of the presidential elections, which are due before May 25, are also frustrating, but here the situation is different: there is no tyranny in Lebanon but a feeble state. In the past Syria covertly manipulated the electoral process in Lebanon. In this round of presidential elections Iran-supported Syria and US-supported, Saudi Arabia exert equally competing influence on Lebanese politics; a condition of paralysis exists at points of transition. In the past month the parliament met four times and failed to elect a new president, for absence of quorum. Tension grows for lack of agreement on how to resolve this electoral impasse before the deadline of May 25. The current president, Michel Suleiman, could vacate his post without being replaced, in which case the cabinet of ministers will collectively assume the power of the presidency, as dictated by the constitution. The Lebanese are used to political cliff-hanging. Among the 12 or so presidential candidates one statesman, Ziad Baroud, stands out in credibility, leadership and popularity - across political parties and religious communities. If a moderate, reconciliatory figure is elected, Lebanon will have six years of stability, but the chances seem to be slim for elections to occur this week.

In 2011, the Arab Spring brought pride for the region; in contrast, 2014 will bring shame.  Rulers are trying to bury the Arab Spring with predictable elections. The historical thrust of the Arab Spring can only be suppressed for a while but not permanently buried.

 

Current Arab elections are theatrical

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz

May 21, 2014, Washington DC.

 

Five Arab countries (Syria, Egypt, Algeria, Iraq and Lebanon) elect their top political leaders this spring under dubious circumstances. Political business is returning to “normal”. And normal politics in the Arab world is far from being so.  It is as if the Arab Spring has not taken place, or it has no permanent impact on the future.

These electoral events have the attributes of political comedy which covers up tragic reality.  Let us first look at Syria. President Bashar al Assad runs for presidential elections on June 3, for a third seven-year term. He ignores the fact that his father governed Syria for 30 years before his 14 years of a tight-fisted reign, which caused a national uprising three years ago.  The uprising morphed into a civil war; the initial peaceful rebellion was met with state brutality. The elections are taking place in an environment of a catastrophic civil war which has, so far, displaced half the population, created 1.5 million refugees and killed 160 thousand people.  Sadly, Assad acts as the savior of a broken society; he sees the next election as legitimizing the extension of his mandate.

In Egypt General Abdel Fattah al Sisi is running for elections on May 26.  Sisi resigned from the position of head of the military after staging a coup against an unpopular, albeit democratically elected president: Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. A military government now manages the country with brutal rules against political dissent.

Both Sisi and Assad are expected to win these two rigged elections.

In Algeria President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika won a third term in April. Bouteflika’s legitimacy should have expired by now due to longevity of service, corruption and poor health. The ailing leader is now a figure head in a political system buttressed by the army and a civilian elite of old time opportunists.

In Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki, who has been in power for eight years, won enough seats in the parliamentary elections which took place on April 30. Maliki has won a third term but he continues to face strong opposition from all sectors of society. Maliki is not as ruthless as Saddam Hussein, but he is viewed as a tyrant by the Iraqi Sunnite community. He is also disliked by a large section of his own Shiite community.  Iraq has been in a continuing sectarian civil war, where Sunnites oppose the dominance of Shiite leadership. 

In Lebanon the circumstances of the presidential elections, which are due before May 25, are also frustrating, but here the situation is different: there is no tyranny in Lebanon but a feeble state. In the past Syria covertly manipulated the electoral process in Lebanon. In this round of presidential elections Iran-supported Syria and US-supported, Saudi Arabia exert equally competing influence on Lebanese politics; a condition of paralysis exists at points of transition. In the past month the parliament met four times and failed to elect a new president, for absence of quorum. Tension grows for lack of agreement on how to resolve this electoral impasse before the deadline of May 25. The current president, Michel Suleiman, could vacate his post without being replaced, in which case the cabinet of ministers will collectively assume the power of the presidency, as dictated by the constitution. The Lebanese are used to political cliff-hanging. Among the 12 or so presidential candidates one statesman, Ziad Baroud, stands out in credibility, leadership and popularity - across political parties and religious communities. If a moderate, reconciliatory figure is elected, Lebanon will have six years of stability, but the chances seem to be slim for elections to occur this week.

In 2011, the Arab Spring brought pride for the region; in contrast, 2014 will bring shame.  Rulers are trying to bury the Arab Spring with predictable elections. The historical thrust of the Arab Spring can only be suppressed for a while but not permanently buried.