Tunis Model for Arab Spring

 

Feb 11, 2014

West Palm Beach

 

 

 

The sociopolitical context for political reform in the Arab world is immensely challenging. As a result few Arab countries will have an easy way to democracy. Miraculously, Tunisia has already shown the start of a genuine Arab awakening.

 

This homogeneous North African Arab country was the first to mobilize public dissent peacefully, to oust an oppressive ruler (Ben Ali) easily, to run a free election, to form a pluralist government- not so easily, and to create a liberal constitution through nationwide, painful and rancorous debate. More significantly, after the departure of Ben Ali, Tunisia succeeded in replacing a new Islamist-led government - which failed to bring about the expected post revolutionary reforms - with a secular government.  Still, the new government has allowed Muslim representatives to share power in a pluralist cabinet. Elections for a new president and national assembly are scheduled to take place this year. To be realistic, Tunisia is not yet immune to reactionary forces. 

 

Consider the contrasting “Arab Spring” developments in Egypt. In early 2011, dramatic street demonstrations ousted President Mubarak, a secular dictator. A democratic election, the first in the country’s history, ushered in the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood Party. The Brotherhood did not live up to the aspirations of the people. A second wave of massive protest led to the replacement of the Brotherhood with a secular, interim government dominated by the military. The new regime has so far failed to introduce reform.

 

A third round of revolutionary change may take place in Cairo at any time in the foreseeable future. For the moment, Egypt relies on Arab Gulf money to sustain a discouraging political status quo: an authoritarian regime suppressing a Muslim opposition under the pretext of protection of national security. For how long will Saudi Arabia be able to finance the military regime in Cairo? How effective will the Muslim Brotherhood be in their opposition to the status quo? And how long will it take for Egyptians to unite on a human rights-based agenda?

 

Libya presents another depressing story. The regime which replaced President Gaddafi has not been effective in bringing back stability and reform to this oil-rich country. Libyan tribal and militia culture is politically corrosive.

 

In Yemen the prognosis is even worse than in Libya. A tyrannical president was replaced by his vice president after covert Saudi and American diplomatic intervention. The country remains deeply divided- ethnically and ideologically- and highly unstable.

 

In Syria, the Arab Spring has morphed into a civil war backed by blunt as well as covert regional and international intervention. Syria’s conflict could last for years as long as Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to confront each other on Syrian soil.

 

Back to Tunisia. What makes this state a winner in the Arab Spring? 

 

Consider the contrast between Tunisia and Egypt in the social context of the Arab Spring. Four factors stand out. While Egyptian society is too obedient to religious authority, particularly on matters of family and gender laws, Tunisians respect their clerics without bowing to them. While the military in Egypt controls a major portion of the economy, the armed forces of Tunisia do not dabble with big business or manipulate politics. The economy is a major, favorable factor in the smaller country: only 5% of Egypt’s land is fertile, whereas in Tunisia two thirds of the land is cultivable. In Tunisia, civic society is vibrant and political parties are active; this is not the case in Egypt, where the government inhibits social and political enterprise.

 

Political contrast is also significant between Tunisia on one hand, and Libya, Syria and Yemen on the other. Despite the corruption and oppression of the Ben Ali regime, and the authoritarian rule of former President Bourghiba, Tunisia has never been led by a severe iron fist. But in Syria, Libya and Yemen the rulers have been consistently harsh and merciless. Tribal divisions in those three countries are strong but subservient to their dictators. Tunisia has not been vulnerable to tribal or sectarian strife. Ninety eight percent of Tunisia is Sunnite.  

 

Tunisia will undoubtedly face challenges and reversals in its march toward full democracy. But as long as the religious and military establishments remain distanced from politics the country will find its way forward.

 

If Tunisia continues on the path of democracy over this decade it would be a compelling regional model for state building. Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, the Arab world has been copying modernity from the West. It is time for the Arabs to build their own paradigm of social change. Tunisia may not be the only model; it will hopefully be one pattern to stimulate reform among neighbors. Once Egypt gets its act together it may provide another road map for countries that are overpopulated, deeply religious and economically challenged.

 

The Arab Spring will take time.