October 24, 2008
Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
This week in Israel, cabinet negotiations have been as volatile as the fluctuations on Wall Street. In the next few days, attempts to form a new Israeli cabinet could shatter the dreams of millions of Middle Easterners who long for peace.
The current moderate Kadima leadership is seen as serious about peace with Arabs. But if the Kadima party fails to form a cabinet and new elections are called, the ultraconservative Benjamin Netanyahu may well become the next Prime Minister.
This impending, nightmare scenario is somewhat offset by other, powerful signs that hang on the positive force for peace that an Obama win would usher in.
In the past few weeks, three separate political developments have made me hopeful that a Barack Obama victory will build momentum for peace in the Middle East.
The first development is the steady rise in Obama’s poll ratings indicating that Americans are looking for the kind of change that he promises. The second event has occurred in Israel. Sensing Obama’s likely election, prominent leaders in Tel Aviv have expressed serious willingness to reconsider the six-year old Arab peace proposal. Prime Minister Olmert spoke candidly on September 29, and Defense Minister Barak did the same on October 19. Both leaders offered surprisingly conciliatory public statements to the Arab world. The third development is in the form of good news for Obama from nations around the world. Polls indicate that the overwhelming majority of nations prefer the Illinois Senator to be in the White House. In sum, Barack is now the candidate of change domestically, he is in demand for conflict resolution in the Middle East, and he is a political star abroad.
A new era of diplomacy might start with a pivotal change in Washington leadership.
I see signs of hope for a transformed philosophy of US foreign relations.
My dream for Middle East peace develops. Events unfold as follows.
In response to an Obama victory, the world community is reminded that America’s best tendencies are self correction, assimilation of minorities and appreciation of diversity. Voices of cooperation in international relations come from near and far to a country that is taking risks for the promise of change.
Through Obama, a new America talks the language of partnership and empowerment and abandons the language of patronage. This new America starts planning for withdrawal from Iraq in close coordination with Europe and Iraq’s neighbors.
A breakthrough in Arab-Israeli conflict is achieved through the engaged leadership of Obama. His record indicates clear passion for peace in the Middle East. The new US president has direct influence on Israeli cabinet formation because the security of the Jewish state is tied to American support. An alliance of moderate parties with a peace agenda emerges to form a new government. Anticipating the victory of the Democrats, this new Israeli government accepts the basic tenants of an Arab-endorsed Saudi peace plan, albeit with some reservations.
In my political dream, conditions are good for exchange of land for peace: Washington mobilizes its resources for international cooperation; Tel Aviv bravely faces the urgency for a major land compromise; Arab regimes assume the full implications of normalization with Israel. A Palestinian state is established with agreement on the three most important issues of land/settlements, refugees and Jerusalem.
Withdrawal from the occupied territories is near total. A consolidated part of the Jewish settlements is preserved, allowing for minor adjustments to 1967 borders. Land lost from the West Bank to Israeli settlements is compensated with comparable Israeli land transferred to Palestinians, thus allowing Gaza to better connect with the West Bank. Israel returns the Golan Heights to Syria with border security between the two countries assured through an international peace force.
The Palestinian refugee issue is creatively solved by return of some Palestinians to their new state and by compensating all needy Palestinians with massive social and economic empowerment programs. But money is not enough to redress injustice. Israel acknowledges its moral responsibility for causing immense suffering to Palestinian refugees. Arab states acknowledge their exploiting the issue of Palestine to defend their excessive investment in warfare at the expense of human investment in displaced Palestinians and in their own societies. A long-term Palestinian compensation package of scholarships, job training, adequate housing and nation-building projects is funded by Arab oil revenues and by Israeli-US-Europe commitments.
Softly partitioned, Jerusalem is the shared capital of Israel and future Palestine, with the East (Arab) side and the West (Israeli) remaining integrated. Access to religious sites remains free to all.
Allow me to continue my dream.
Israel is offered full diplomatic relations with twenty-two Arab countries. Israelis and Arabs are invited to invest in each others countries. Regional water projects are activated.
Under an Obama administration, the psychology of national security in the Middle East changes from a zero-sum game to a win-win game. Jews no longer have to think of gaining security through engineering Arab insecurity; Arabs no longer have to consider Israel’s prosperity as the primary source of their misery.
In this dream I have mixed facts with wishful thinking to make a point: the parameters of the Arab-Israeli conflict are known; what is missing is the political climate for conflict resolution. Obama could be a catalyst for this favorable climate.
