Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Analysis of Iraqi shoe hurling misses the target

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida:


The symbolism of last week’s shoe throwing incident is explosive, but unfortunately the media has misread its significance. The Iraqi reporter, Montadar Al-Zaidi, who threw his two shoes, one after the other, aiming at President Bush’s head during a news conference was making a calculated political statement. Although this disrespectful act has some particular cultural significance in the Arab world, the cultural aspect fascinates and distracts Americans from the central issue. Political motives, more than culture, explain why an Iraqi activist risked his life to humiliate a foreign president who launched a catastrophic war.

The reporter—and many other Iraqis—considered President Bush’s last mission to Iraq provocative and unhelpful. Moreover, the provoked reporter found in Bush’s visit a historic opportunity to tell the world that Iraqis remain hostile to American military occupation. The message of the angry reporter is that war on Iraq is not merely a mistake, not simply a policy error, not only a foreign assistance flaw; it is, in the opinion of the protesting communicator, a political disaster which has hurt millions of people.

Why have so many commentators and analysts missed the point of the Iraqi shoe incident? One clue maybe found in the disconnect between those who praise the occupation as “liberating” for the Iraqi people and those who criticize the US occupation itself, as well as the U.S. conduct in the war. According to neo-conservative democracy promoters, Iraqis would not have enjoyed the liberty to insult a president publicly under a despotic regime. Arabs and Americans see the world differently. Iraqis, in particular, see the results of the occupation worse than the consequences of regime change.

President Bush’s cost-benefit analysis of Iraq’s occupation is far-fetched and insensitive. Iraqis are not willing to destroy their country to gain a measure of political freedom. The current Administration’s war has injured -physically and mentally- or killed one out of ten Iraqis, displaced one out of five, deepened the ethnic and sectarian divisions and pushed back development in Iraq fifty years.

Seeing the war through Iraqi eyes is what this startling shoe throwing episode is about. The journalist, who became instantly a local hero for seizing a moment to make history, became simultaneously famous at home and infamous abroad. He may not speak for all Iraqis, but he certainly speaks for a majority. Overblown cultural analysis or talk of progress in democracy cannot provide any special insight into the motivation behind this unique and controversial brand of political protest.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Can war be just or does it have to be justified?


Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Perhaps in a hundred years the world might arrive at the smart conclusion that war does not bring peace. As costly and painful evidence accumulates, humanity is bound to discover that military intervention is often of little help to effective conflict resolution.

Wars are often morally unjust; they are usually artificially justified. Brian Orend identifies a cluster of six variables in the Just War Tradition: cause, intention, authority, last resort, probability of success, and proportionate cost. For a war to be called just by the Tradition thinkers, it must meet all six criteria. (Brian Oren: Michael Walzer on War and Justice, McGill 2000.)

Some explanation of the Just War Tradition is in order. First, a just war must have a good cause. Often just wars are waged to combat threats to national security. Second, just wars are based on good intentions: e.g. to rescue people, to prevent genocides, or to restore legitimate borders. Third, wars must be explicitly declared and properly authorized. The use of force across borders must respect international laws of state sovereignty. Within the borders of a free nation, only the state is authorized to use force. Under colonial occupation, liberation movements have the right to armed struggle. Fourth, wars should be measures of last resort to be used only after all peaceful means of resolving conflict fail. Fifth, wars must be avoided if the prospects of their success are slim. Lastly, the cost of war should not be disproportionate to the intended outcome of the military intervention.

To show how difficult it is to justify war, I examined 12 (mostly Middle-East) wars and classified them into two neat categories of “just” and “unjust”.

CRITERIA

JUST WARS

UNJUST WARS

Cause

2001 Afghanistan

Second Gulf war

Right Intention

1991 Iraq

1990 invasion of Kuwait

Proper Authority

NATO/Bosnia

Turks invasion of Cyprus

Last Resort

UN intervention in Darfur

2006 Israel/Lebanon war

Likely Success

South Lebanon Liberation

1967 June war

Proportional result

Alge War of independence

Iraq-Iran war

A war can be called unjust for violating a single criterion, but for a war to be considered just, it has to pass all six criteria. The unjust wars listed above are considered unjust for the following reasons:

Unjust wars and failed criteria

- No cause in second Iraq war: The 2003 US War on Iraq was unjust because there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and there was no connection to Al-Qaeda and global terrorism.

- Bad intention in occupation of Kuwait: Saddam rationalized his invasion of Kuwait to deal with Iraq’s financial crisis after the Iran war.

- Unlawful authority in Occupation of Cyprus: In 1974, Turkish forces launched a surprise attack on a sovereign state, Cyprus. It was Turkey, not the Turkish Cypriot community which declared the war on the Greek Cypriot community.

- Last resort ignored in 2006 war on Lebanon: Before diplomacy was exhausted in the border hostage crisis, Israel launched a devastating war on Lebanon in the summer of 2006.

- Prospects of security remain poor for Israel: The 1967 Israeli occupation of Arab land did bring a military success but not a solution to Israel’s future security.

- Result of Iraq-Iran war devastating: The Iraq-Iran war of the eighties, which Saddam Hussein started and the West fuelled, exhausted both countries, ended in a stalemate, and created immense Muslim distrust of the West.

Just wars

Shifting to just wars, consider the US-led coalition war in Afghanistan to destroy Bin Laden terrorist training camps and dismantle the Taliban government. When this war was launched, it was legitimately linked with the 9/11 tragedy and justified on criteria of cause, intention, authority, last resort, prospects, and result. However, after the US-led distractive and destructive 2003 war on Iraq, the Taliban regrouped, international support for US efforts weakened, and the Muslim world became less motivated to participate in the international war on terror. There are now alternative theories on how to deal with the conflict in Afghanistan. Increasingly, the resolution of the conflict looks political rather than military. This war started as just, but it is losing its legitimacy.

Next, consider the first Gulf war of 1991, in which an international coalition invaded Iraq. This war is considered just on cause (Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait), intention (respect of state sovereignty), authority broad multinational coalition) and last resort (adequate diplomacy preceded intervention). However, this war is weak on the criteria of success (a second Gulf war followed) and result (high Iraqi casualties, immense environmental degradation, and growing political discord).

The verdicts on Darfur and Bosnia are still undecided. Bosnia remains insecure, and the Darfur intervention is too late and limited in scope.

The last two wars on my “just” list were liberation from colonial occupation. Led by Hezbollah, the armed struggle in Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s forced Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon in 2000. With a heavy human toll (1.5 million Algerians and 27,000 French soldiers), the Algerian war of independence liberated the country from France in the 1950’s and early 1960’s. The “success” criterion in Lebanon was met through land liberation. Despite heavy casualties, Algeria’s liberation “resulted’ in the birth of a large and independent nation. Algeria’s independence became a model of struggle for emerging nations. Land liberation wars are relatively easy to justify after liberation is achieved. However, the moral character of the struggle is not irrelevant.

The scholars who worked out the theory of just war were morally demanding. Few wars meet all six criteria of justice. But the real challenge for making war of lasting positive impact goes beyond meeting the moral criteria of justice. It is true that going to war requires a just, cause, a noble intention, an authorized force, exhausted diplomacy, good outcome, and limited cost; however, just wars can only advance conflict resolution to a limited extent.

In order for war to resolve conflict effectively, the root causes of the conflict must be addressed. War can not reduce world poverty, generate jobs for millions of youth, level opportunities among nations, protect the environment, or reduce population pressures.

Just war theory is limited because it is just about war. For centuries the world has lived under a war- based paradigm of conflict resolution. Today we understand better the connection between social, economic, and political problems. A better and more effective approach to conflict resolution must reflect the complexity of social causation.

War may be necessary in rare cases; but it is often not sufficient to restore social order in a “flat, hot and crowded” world, to borrow a phrase from Thomas Friedman. In an absolute sense, war can be justified but it can rarely be just. War is often condoned collective punishment.

Globally, the day has not come yet to stop venerating war and its champions. I dream that, a century from now, war, like slavery, will be abolished.

Saturday, December 06, 2008

Signs of hope in the Middle East

Signs of hope in the Middle East by Ghassan Michel Rubeiz


Following the election of Barak Obama, Arab American commentator and former Secretary of the Middle East for the Geneva-based World Council of Churches, Ghassan Michel Rubeiz, considers opportunities for Arab-Israeli peace amidst the hard realities on the ground in the Middle East.
(Source: Common Ground News Service (CGNews), 2 December 2008)

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida - There is both good and bad news regarding attitudes about peace in the Holy Land. A Gallup Poll released last week indicates that 63 percent of Israelis and 66 percent of Palestinians still support the peace process. However, only 29 percent of Israelis and 18 percent of Palestinians polled believe that permanent peace is achievable.

Both sides want peace but they are discouraged. The election of Barack Obama as US President offers hope for peace making in the Middle East.

Most Arabs find Obama more credible and balanced than outgoing George W. Bush and his administration. Although Israelis were initially nervous about Obama, they have been reassured by his many statements offering support to Israel, as well as by the appointment of the longstanding Israel supporter, Hillary Clinton, as his chief diplomat.

If the future US president fulfils his campaign promise by putting the Middle East peace process high on the foreign policy agenda, he would restore confidence of both sides in regional peace prospects.

And there are more signs of hope for the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Israeli leaders are currently mulling over a revived 2002 Saudi peace proposal which calls for ending occupation of Arab land, fair treatment for refugees and normalisation of relations between Israel and 22 Arab states. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister Ehud Barack and President Shimon Perez now agree that withdrawal from Arab territories makes regional peace viable and long-term security guarantees for Israel achievable.

Returning the Golan Heights to Syria is also an option in exchange for peace. Intermittent negotiations with Syria, brokered by Turkey, started last year but have slowed as Israel prepares for early elections in February and Obama transitions into the White House.

On 8 January, Mahmoud Abbas’ term as President of the Palestinian Authority expires. In Gaza and the West Bank, fratricidal conflict between Palestinian leadership remains a costly and maddening reality, despite recent Egypt-mediated talks between the two parties. Although realities on the ground are challenging, the new Gallup Poll suggests the incoming US president might have the respect of the Palestinian people if he chooses to play a role in encouraging Hamas, which has power in Gaza, and Fatah, the party that governs the West Bank, to reunite for peace.

Progress is also visible in Lebanon. Hizbullah is negotiating the status of its militia with the government. Lebanon has a new cabinet in which Hizbullah is represented. As Lebanon strengthens its national defence, and if tension with Israel eases, Hizbullah may eventually integrate its militia in the national army.

Lebanese relations have improved with Syria too. The two countries are slated to exchange ambassadors for the first time since Lebanon’s independence in 1943.

And there are still more signs of hope emanating from the region….

President Mahmud Ahmadinejad congratulated Obama following the US elections, demonstrating a desire to open a new chapter of dialogue with the United States. Such rapprochement would be beneficial to the stability within the region: Iran remains a significant regional player, impacting Iraq’s stability, Palestine’s resistance and Lebanon’s political peace.

However, whether in Israel, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon or Iran, these nascent steps for peace are fragile and reversible. They must be supported by the new US administration if peace is to prevail.

Continued US policy of “not talking to the enemy” in Iran may cause the strengthening of ultra-conservative forces in the presidential elections next June. As long as Iran continues to be isolated it is difficult for its beneficiaries – Hizbullah and Hamas – to become full partners in peace.

In his 20 January inaugural speech, Obama could connect the promise of peace with prosperity in the Middle East and national security in America. He could appoint a moderate and charismatic peace emissary and express aspirations for the creation of a Palestinian state during his first term. He could assure Israelis and Palestinians continued support and mention his strong desire to re-engage Europe in the peace process and the development of international security arrangements.

With a multilateral foreign policy and with soft power, Obama may now have the opportunity to facilitate security for Israel, independence for Palestinians and credible US leadership for this process. Now is the time to move forward. Domestic popularity and an outpouring of international support offer Obama unprecedented moral and political capital to work toward peace in the Middle East.

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* Dr. Ghassan Michel Rubeiz is an Arab American commentator and former Secretary of the Middle East for the Geneva-based World Council of Churches. This article was written for the Common Ground News Service (CGNews).

Source: Common Ground News Service, 2 December 2008, www.commongroundnews.org
Copyright permission is granted for publication.