let's give Egyptian democracy a chance

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Let's give Egyptian democracy a chance

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By GHASSAN MICHEL RUBEIZ

By GHASSAN MICHEL RUBEIZ

Give Egypt's new president the benefit of the doubt.

The candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Mursi, was recently elected the president of Egypt. After decades of covert struggle, the Muslim Brotherhood has now emerged into open air, through the power of the ballot box.

The day he won, the former U.S.-trained engineer graciously stressed unity: "I will serve all Egyptians, Muslims and Copts; there will be no difference between one community and another. There will be no settling of scores, revenge or oppression after today."

If Mursi succeeds as a president, he will have conducted the first Arab experiment that integrates religion with democracy.

In attempting to do so, he would do well to look at the Turkish Islamic model. It emphasizes human development, a strong industrial base and partnerships across borders. It took many years for the Turkish government to tame its military. Ankara managed to clip the wings of the generals after it significantly improved the economy.

There are some signs that the Muslim Brotherhood may adopt the Turkish framework. Mursi recently formed the Freedom and Justice Party, a parallel structure to Turkey's Development and Justice Party. Both parties were instituted in the two countries to ensure some separation of the religious movement from secular executive power. Egypt won't make an exact copy of the Turkish model, but it should gain insight from it.

Then there is the problem of the military.

Mursi will have to form a coalition government engaging secular parties and civic society groups to be able to gradually liberate the system from the military.

Since the downfall of former dictator Hosni Mubarak, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has aggressively retained a strong hold on the legislative and executive power and on internal security. Its unconstitutional power grab in the days leading up to the election cannot be allowed to stand.

Egyptians have chosen their leader. The world community ought to give Mursi a chance to succeed or fail. If Mursi fails in his leadership, the next elections will show him out. Democracy is served when the electoral process is respected.

ABOUT THE WRITER

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz, a social scientist andpolitical commentator,is the former secretary of the Middle East for the Geneva-based World Council of Churches. He wrote this for Progressive Media Project, a source of liberal commentary on domestic and international issues; it is affiliated with The Progressive magazine. Readers may write to the author at: Progressive Media Project, 409 East Main Street, Madison, Wis. 53703; email: pmproj@progressive.org; Web site: www.progressive.org. For information on PMP's funding, please visit http://www.progressive.org/pmpabout.html#anchorsupport.

This article was prepared for The Progressive Media Project and is available to MCT subscribers. McClatchy-Tribune did not subsidize the writing of this column; the opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of McClatchy-Tribune or its editors.

2012 Ghassan Michel Rubeiz

Copyright 2012 . All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Copyright 2012

Mursi VS. Shafiq, stark contrast in Egypt's elections

 East Meredith, New York

In the first round of elections Egyptians expressed their priorities, but in the runoff round they will express their fears.

It was an achievement for Egypt to conduct a democratic presidential election last month. This weekend Egyptians will choose between two ideologically contrasting, authoritarian figures in a decisive second round of voting.

Authoritarianism has deep roots in the Middle East. It took six decades to figure out how to depose a dictator. It may take longer to discover how to dispose of a patriarchal social order, a system of norms which prescribes that men dominate women, the military to control the civilian, and for clerics to influence politics, restrict religious freedom, suppress human sexuality and arrange marriage.

Mohammad Mursi and Ahmed Shafiq are the two contenders for the presidency in the runoff elections. The race is tight.

Mursi is backed by the Muslim Brotherhood,MB, the strongest conservative religious movement in the region. Few believe that the MB is capable of running the country without its undergoing ideological transformation. The Islamists already have a majority in the parliament.

Shafiq is covertly backed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF.  SCAF is expected to hand over power to a civilian government in July. Few believe that the military will immediately relinquish power; the generals run lucrative and privileged economic projects: 30 % of the economy.

The two candidates are personally more flexible than the establishment they belong to. Before he taught in the Arab world, Mursi was a professor of engineering at California State University.  And Shafiq was an impressive Chief of Air Force, an innovative Minister of Aviation and a Prime Minister.

Mursi promises to fight corruption, serve the poor and reform foreign policy, while Shafiq offers stability, prosperity and secular governance.

Mursi was active in the Arab Spring uprising as a senior leader in the Islamist movement, while Shafiq was Mubarak’s last prime minister, handling the uprising as if it were a passing wave of social unrest.

Mursi has formed the Freedom and Justice Party to distance himself a notch from organized religion and broaden his secular base.  He initially expected to have the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament to write the new constitution. Under pressure in recent days, he conceded to allow the formation of a diverse national assembly which will draft the new constitution.

Regardless of who wins this election, the new leader of Egypt will succeed or fail depending on how far he serves the entire nation, far beyond his constituency. Regardless of the charisma which any candidate may bring to the presidency, the ultimate outcome of his rule still depends significantly on developments beyond his control.

Consider the personal element first. If Mursi is the new president, will he be sober, eager and trusting enough to form a coalition government in which major secular parties and social movements could join him in running the country?

Moreover, will Mursi, the former US professor, guide his Freedom and Justice Party to follow the moderate political path of Turkey, and to go even beyond the Turkish model, in respecting minority groups?

And if Shafiq is elected, will he realize that Mubarak’s dynastic style of governance is now obsolete? Will he be able to provide security without suppressing dissent? Will he restrict privilege and expand entitlement provisions?

Socio political factors will significantly impact the performance of the new president. Three such variables come to mind: the quality of the new constitution, the performance of the economy and international support.

After the elections, the newly formed assembly will revise the constitution which is supposed to restrict the power of the president, distance the military from politics, protect human rights and insure sound foreign policy. The president will not be able to introduce reforms without a progressive legal framework.

The relevance of the economy on leadership is significant. The eighty million Egyptians are industrious, but they live on land which is 95 % desert.  Egyptians need tourists to return to the Pyramids.  If the economy continues to decline, the priorities of social and political reforms may weaken. Reform and dependence on aid do not go well together.

International policy of assistance to Egypt should change in the new era. For instance, US military aid to Egypt is about $1.3 billion and non-military assistance is only $250 million. Without a strong economic and scientific base, Egypt cannot break the cycle of poverty. Cairo needs more economic and scientific empowerment than politically-tied military aid.

The success of the new president will have to be a combination of personal achievement and supportive socio-economic factors.

Egyptians who fear the military most will vote for Mursi, and those who fear a dominant political Islam most will vote for Shafiq.

Who Will Win The Egyptian Presidential Elections?

East Meredith, New York

Egypt today deserves a great leader, but a savior is not in sight.

Regardless who will rule Egypt over the next five years, the presidential elections of May 23 and 24 were a milestone in democracy building. A largely peaceful 2011 uprising smoothed the way for competitive campaigning, followed by real voting. Egyptians should celebrate the end of an era in which they had been forced to close their eyes while they unanimously cast ballots.

With absence of a majority winner, runoff elections between the two lead candidates will take place on June 16 and 17. Egyptians will vote for one of two burdened presidential finalists: Mohamed Mursi, a US educated professor (Ph.D. engineer) with a strong religious affiliation; and Ahmed Shafiq, a military leader (former chief of the air force) with loyalty to deposed Mubarak (his last prime minister).

Differences in vote scores among the top five contenders were moderate, and each of the two close winners received about a quarter of the votes. 

The results are mixed.

At first look, the figures are discouraging given the immense cost of the January 2011 revolution. The problem: runoff candidates do not seem excited about comprehensive reform. Professor Mursi is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and General Shafiq is too close to business, the military and the ousted president.

Still there are signs of hope.

The presidential hopefuls who placed third, fourth and fifth are advocates of strong change. Together, these second-tier candidates received about fifty percent of the votes.  Popular politicians should play a significant role in a future coalition government. It helps to observe that the second, third and fifth contenders are secular.

In a Special to CNN on May 30, Mohammed Ayoob, an International Relations Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University, argued that if the Muslim Brotherhood, the Nasserites and other liberals form a coalition government, they would set Egypt on the right track.

Ideally, each of the top five contenders could play a role in future state building.

Mursi is backed by a grassroots Islamic organization. He has formed a separate organization, the Justice and Freedom Party, to distance himself a notch from organized religion and broaden his secular base.  In any society religion could be a source of inspiration for politics. The challenge, however, is to use the scripture to serve human needs rather than suppress them. If elected, will Professor Mursi support freedom of conscience, rights of women and minority groups? He says he will; and he is aware that he will be judged by the demonstrators of Tahreer Square.

General Shafiq has an impressive record in top management and business. His organizational skills are needed. But will he exploit his connections with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to try to win the runoff elections? Or will he distance himself from the military and respond to the ideals of the uprising?

The third-place candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi, is a rising star. Sabahi takes former President Nasser as a role model. He is sensitive to the poor and is outspoken on Israel. His populism and passionate nationalism may generate opposition from the West. Sabahi will push for an assertive posture in foreign relations.  He would advocate that Egypt get firm with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu.

A liberal Islamist with followers in the Muslim Brotherhood, A.M. Aboul Foutouh, came in fourth in the elections. If included in a coalition government, Aboul Foutouh could be a moderating influence on the more religiously conservative Mursi.

The fifth ranking candidate was Amro Musa. As a foreign relations statesman, an Arab League leader and a mediator for the “peace process,” he underperformed in this national electoral race.  Regrettably, Musa projects an image of a Mubarak crony.

Egyptians will most likely vote for change and not for the military.

A flexible Mursi, committed to diversity, team work and a reform constitution, could win the race. He has the support of the Muslim Brotherhood; he needs the cooperation of the Nasserite camp and civic society groups.

Absent a savior, a pragmatist might be able to lead Egypt.