Who Will Win The Egyptian Presidential Elections?

East Meredith, New York

Egypt today deserves a great leader, but a savior is not in sight.

Regardless who will rule Egypt over the next five years, the presidential elections of May 23 and 24 were a milestone in democracy building. A largely peaceful 2011 uprising smoothed the way for competitive campaigning, followed by real voting. Egyptians should celebrate the end of an era in which they had been forced to close their eyes while they unanimously cast ballots.

With absence of a majority winner, runoff elections between the two lead candidates will take place on June 16 and 17. Egyptians will vote for one of two burdened presidential finalists: Mohamed Mursi, a US educated professor (Ph.D. engineer) with a strong religious affiliation; and Ahmed Shafiq, a military leader (former chief of the air force) with loyalty to deposed Mubarak (his last prime minister).

Differences in vote scores among the top five contenders were moderate, and each of the two close winners received about a quarter of the votes. 

The results are mixed.

At first look, the figures are discouraging given the immense cost of the January 2011 revolution. The problem: runoff candidates do not seem excited about comprehensive reform. Professor Mursi is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and General Shafiq is too close to business, the military and the ousted president.

Still there are signs of hope.

The presidential hopefuls who placed third, fourth and fifth are advocates of strong change. Together, these second-tier candidates received about fifty percent of the votes.  Popular politicians should play a significant role in a future coalition government. It helps to observe that the second, third and fifth contenders are secular.

In a Special to CNN on May 30, Mohammed Ayoob, an International Relations Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University, argued that if the Muslim Brotherhood, the Nasserites and other liberals form a coalition government, they would set Egypt on the right track.

Ideally, each of the top five contenders could play a role in future state building.

Mursi is backed by a grassroots Islamic organization. He has formed a separate organization, the Justice and Freedom Party, to distance himself a notch from organized religion and broaden his secular base.  In any society religion could be a source of inspiration for politics. The challenge, however, is to use the scripture to serve human needs rather than suppress them. If elected, will Professor Mursi support freedom of conscience, rights of women and minority groups? He says he will; and he is aware that he will be judged by the demonstrators of Tahreer Square.

General Shafiq has an impressive record in top management and business. His organizational skills are needed. But will he exploit his connections with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to try to win the runoff elections? Or will he distance himself from the military and respond to the ideals of the uprising?

The third-place candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi, is a rising star. Sabahi takes former President Nasser as a role model. He is sensitive to the poor and is outspoken on Israel. His populism and passionate nationalism may generate opposition from the West. Sabahi will push for an assertive posture in foreign relations.  He would advocate that Egypt get firm with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu.

A liberal Islamist with followers in the Muslim Brotherhood, A.M. Aboul Foutouh, came in fourth in the elections. If included in a coalition government, Aboul Foutouh could be a moderating influence on the more religiously conservative Mursi.

The fifth ranking candidate was Amro Musa. As a foreign relations statesman, an Arab League leader and a mediator for the “peace process,” he underperformed in this national electoral race.  Regrettably, Musa projects an image of a Mubarak crony.

Egyptians will most likely vote for change and not for the military.

A flexible Mursi, committed to diversity, team work and a reform constitution, could win the race. He has the support of the Muslim Brotherhood; he needs the cooperation of the Nasserite camp and civic society groups.

Absent a savior, a pragmatist might be able to lead Egypt.