Are Israel and Hamas buying time for the next round?
November 25,
2012
Detached
from a wider Arab-Israeli peace framework, the recently brokered cease-fire, between
Hamas and Tel Aviv, stands on shaky grounds. Threats to this rushed settlement come
from all sides.
A day after
basking in the glory of success in brokering a tough truce Egyptian President Morsi
issued a decree to acquire immunity from the courts. Cairo street
demonstrations are calling for Morsi to return to his senses. This is a fresh
and clear indication that Egypt is too unstable to guarantee a tenuous truce
between two parties who seem to have resorted to sign a peace document in order
to buy time.
Hamas is
exhausted from devastating air strikes and Israel is afraid to get bogged down
in Gaza. The eyes of Jerusalem are focused on Tehran, perceived as the primary
threat to Israel.
Within hours
of the cease-fire announcement, the leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, bragged
about the victory of the resistance and full readiness for future battles with the
Jewish state. He said:
"This is a round that will be followed
by more rounds; the victory brings victory and the defeat brings defeat, and
Israel has been defeated in Gaza twice."
Israel’s leaders emerged from this crisis
with equally irritating, triumphal sentiments. Prime Minister Netanyahu warned
the people of Gaza that his defense forces will return with a heavier blow if
violence erupts again.
On either
side, there seems to be no sign of change in attitude, learning from the past
or attention paid to the political context which underlies the crisis: an
occupation blocking the birth of a Palestinian state and leading Israel to perpetual
insecurity.
The
Netanyahu government calls the West Bank by its Biblical name “Judea and
Samaria”. Israel’s sense of entitlement to the land grows as the occupation
lingers. Building of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem continues.
Despite their official pronouncements to
the contrary, Israel’s current leaders do not believe in a two-state solution.
The cease-fire
has no chance to survive for long in a climate of a moribund peace process. The
language of the cease fire is left vague perhaps because neither side believes
it is realistic.
A central
feature of this shaky settlement is lifting the siege on Gaza to allow free “access
of people and goods”. Will Israel open its borders to a party it insists on considering
to be a terrorist organization?
Another
crucial term in the agreement is the termination of Hamas’ smuggling of arms from
Iran and elsewhere. Will Hamas stop secret import of arms while Israel threatens
to attack Gaza any time in the future? Hamas has lost much of its arms and
infrastructure; rearmament is expected in a position of high vulnerability.
An early break
in the cease-fire is not expected; it would threaten the re-election of
Netanyahu. Calm may prevail for two to three months to allow current leaders of
this Israeli government to receive a new mandate for “disciplining” Iran and
its allies, Hamas and Hezbollah. The next Israeli adventure is planned for
Iran.
Three
simultaneous developments are required to save the cease-fire and widen the
chances of a regional peace:
First, the two
rival Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fateh, must rush for unity to establish a
common front for assertive peace negotiation with Israel. The upcoming submission of an application for
Palestinian non-member status in the United Nations Assembly, scheduled for November
29, may divert the efforts of the Palestinians and give Israel an excuse to
undermine the Palestinian cause.
Second, a re-elected,
more comfortable President Obama must take urgent steps to revive the Arab-Israeli
peace process. By helping Egypt broker Gaza’s cease fire, it is imperative that
Washington provide the appropriate context for achieving a wider peace
Third,
Israel should start negotiating directly with Hamas, if it intends to address
the interests of all the Palestinian people.
The Gaza cease-fire
will soon atrophy if it remains in a narrow political context.