Five Scenarios for Syria

 

 

East Meredith, NY

 

War in Syria is not likely to lead to conflict resolution any time soon. An empowered Egyptian regime may play a positive role in the future of Syria and the region.

President Assad continues to hope for a miraculous solution to stay in power.  The Syrian leader refuses to admit that he is part of the problem. Naturally, he is worried about the perilous consequences for his Alawite community after his departure, but the longer he lingers on, the harder it will be for him to exit in peace.

Staggering numbers of civilian victims, floods of refugees, destruction of vital national infrastructure, increased international isolation, erosion of legitimacy and strengthening of the opposition have not yet brought Assad to reality.

The regime continues to justify its ruthless fight with its own people by labeling the opposition as “terrorists” and “sectarian”, and by denouncing “international intervention”. Assad knows better. The Arab Spring is in Syria because his dynasty is not popular; and sectarian tension is partly a product of Alawite dominance. Most Syrians are patriotic; those calling for foreign military intervention feel helpless in facing the brutality of the state.

After a year and a half of strife, the Syrian struggle may soon be entering a third, decisive phase, where sheer force will determine the winner and the loser.  And in this phase there may not be much mercy left among the winners. The revolution has shifted from an initial phase of confrontation between the opposition and the government to a military conflict which required international mediation. And now Syria is in a civil war where Iran, Russia and China back a sinking regime and the US, Turkey, Europe and the Arab Gulf states back an opposition with varied political agendas.

 

There is still hope for a region-based solution for Syria.

Egypt, a leading Arab country, recently declared strong support for the Syrian opposition. In his statement on Syria last week, Egyptian President Morsi stunned the 120 national delegates of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM) summit meeting in Tehran with clear pronouncements. The new President surprised both Iran, the host of the summit, and Israel, a non participant of NAM and a primary adversary of Tehran. On the Syrian regime Morsi was tough: “Our solidarity with the struggle of the Syrian people against an oppressive regime that has lost its legitimacy is an ethical duty as it is a political and strategic necessity”. For Israel the message was subtle: he likened the Syrian uprising to the “brave” Palestinian struggle against the Israeli occupation. He said both groups are “actively seeking freedom, dignity and human justice”.

Despite the assertive stand of Egypt on Syria, Iran’s leaders are eager to mend fences with Egypt’s new president. Both regimes are aware that further deterioration in Syria could widen the sectarian [Sunni- Shiite] rift in the Muslim world and devastate the region. Both regimes are also unhappy with US policy in the Middle East.

The August death toll of 5000 people in Syria is alarming. Hopefully the regime will collapse before the situation is out of control. No one can predict with any certainty the outcome of the course of events in Syria. To illustrate the complexity of possibilities, consider the following five scenarios.  

a.     Obama wins a second term and Russia loses faith in the viability of the Syrian regime: a US-Russian- Arab peace proposal for Syria emerges in early 2013.

 

b.    With the help of the new UN Syria envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, an Iranian- Egyptian initiative arranges a graceful exit for President Assad and a formula for a transitional government. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will have to support the initiative.

 

c.     A coup or a sudden exit of President Assad triggers a transition based on the terms of the rebel coalition.

 

d.     An Israeli attack on Iran or on Lebanon’s Hezbollah distracts international attention from Syria and slows the Arab Spring for some time.

 

e.     The conflict in Syria expands into a Lebanese-type sectarian civil war lasting several years.

A re-elected Obama and the newly empowered Egyptian President may generate new alternatives to the current stalemate in Syria.  Moreover, if Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran can work together on a transition plan for Syria, it would be a welcomed precedent in regional peace-making.