It'a time for a new peace plan for Syria
The current peace plan for Syria is inadequate.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to the plan negotiated by the U.N.-Arab League envoy, former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. But that plan misses a basic ingredient: a graceful exit for Assad and his system.
Annan's plan is about a cease-fire, humanitarian assistance and reform under the leadership of the current regime. But the people of Syria will not trust any reform formula sponsored by a ruler who has gone too far, and for too long, in their suppression.
For any plan to succeed, it must do one thing at its root: ease out the Assad regime, which has destroyed its credibility and undermined its legitimacy by cracking down so brutally on the yearlong revolt.
Here is a political plan for a smooth transition of power. The proposed plan sets a time limit for the Assad regime: two years. The purpose of the following two-year plan is to stop bloodshed, introduce regime change, protect vulnerable communities and avert foreign intervention.
The plan has six points.
1. Social intervention: This should be comprised of a cease-fire, the freeing of political prisoners, a withdrawal of army and opposition troops from streets, full access to humanitarian aid and the repatriation of migrants and displaced groups.
2. Reconciliation: A reconciliation council should be formed with the task of hammering out an agreement. This council should represent all political groups and receive approval of the United Nations and the Arab League.
3. Primary elections: An electoral campaign needs to be prepared to elect a body tasked with writing a constitution that protects human rights for all Syrians.
4. A national referendum should be held to approve the new constitution.
5. There needs to be an election of a four-year parliament.
6. And there has to be an election of a new president by parliament or the people, depending on the constitution.
The above sketch may look unrealistic given the military strength of the regime, a loyalist base among the minority populations, deep divisions within the opposition, confusion of priorities among Syrian ideologues, fear of a takeover by fundamentalists and Cold War-type external meddling.
But it is even more unrealistic to arm the rebels or to mount an international intervention. Both of those would play right into the hands of the Assad regime.
Annan should build on his cease-fire proposal but offer Assad a way to bow out. Only then can the Syrian people hope to taste democracy and freedom.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to the plan negotiated by the U.N.-Arab League envoy, former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. But that plan misses a basic ingredient: a graceful exit for Assad and his system.
Annan's plan is about a cease-fire, humanitarian assistance and reform under the leadership of the current regime. But the people of Syria will not trust any reform formula sponsored by a ruler who has gone too far, and for too long, in their suppression.
For any plan to succeed, it must do one thing at its root: ease out the Assad regime, which has destroyed its credibility and undermined its legitimacy by cracking down so brutally on the yearlong revolt.
Here is a political plan for a smooth transition of power. The proposed plan sets a time limit for the Assad regime: two years. The purpose of the following two-year plan is to stop bloodshed, introduce regime change, protect vulnerable communities and avert foreign intervention.
The plan has six points.
1. Social intervention: This should be comprised of a cease-fire, the freeing of political prisoners, a withdrawal of army and opposition troops from streets, full access to humanitarian aid and the repatriation of migrants and displaced groups.
2. Reconciliation: A reconciliation council should be formed with the task of hammering out an agreement. This council should represent all political groups and receive approval of the United Nations and the Arab League.
3. Primary elections: An electoral campaign needs to be prepared to elect a body tasked with writing a constitution that protects human rights for all Syrians.
4. A national referendum should be held to approve the new constitution.
5. There needs to be an election of a four-year parliament.
6. And there has to be an election of a new president by parliament or the people, depending on the constitution.
The above sketch may look unrealistic given the military strength of the regime, a loyalist base among the minority populations, deep divisions within the opposition, confusion of priorities among Syrian ideologues, fear of a takeover by fundamentalists and Cold War-type external meddling.
But it is even more unrealistic to arm the rebels or to mount an international intervention. Both of those would play right into the hands of the Assad regime.
Annan should build on his cease-fire proposal but offer Assad a way to bow out. Only then can the Syrian people hope to taste democracy and freedom.
posted by Ghassan Rubeiz at 12:23 PM
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