Can Assad save his regime with radical reforms?
Palm Beach Gardens
Regime change in Syria may have wide impact on the entire Middle East. If the changes are genuine and well planned, they may activate the neglected Syrian track of the peace process with Israel; advance conflict resolution between Israel and Palestinians; and establish balanced relations with Lebanon. Creative Syrian reform could also help Hezbollah and Hamas better integrate in Lebanon and Palestine respectively. Reforms from Damascus could contribute to the stability of Iraq- through improved border control- and provide a model for political reform in Iran.
After two weeks of growing street protest, the reaction of President Assad to the uprising in his country is not clear yet. Will his response to the uprising be to lead the reform to save Syria or to dilute Syrian aspirations and continue his father’s patriarchal legacy? His speech on March 30 disappointed many observers. He acknowledged the need for serious reform but gave no specifics on planned action.
While there is sharp debate among Syrians on how best to introduce change, the Syrians generally believe that the regime is the root-cause of oppression and corruption rather than the president. This is not the case in Libya, where Colonel Gaddafi is both the source of trouble and the target of the uprising.
But Assad does not have an easy task in reforming a dynasty he has led for eleven years and his father founded forty- one years ago. Syria is a police state. The shadow of fear hovers over society. Politics is only for the ruling elite; others whisper when they discuss sensitive matters. State news is rhetorical. One hears about thousands of political prisoners and missing persons and learns not to ask probing questions. The emergency law and has been in operation for 48 years.
Religion and politics are separated less by intimidation than by law. The more secular the mosque and the church are, the less their leaders are monitored. Religious authority is limited by the state. Secularism makes the Syrian regime attractive to reformers who realize that sectarianism is a threat to national unity.
The ruling regime is largely made up of the Alawite sect, which constitutes only 15% of the population. In theory, this minority is an offshoot of Shieism. In practice, the Alawites are an ethnic community with a sectarian label. Like the Kurds and the Druze minorities of Syria, the Alawites are among the most secular of Arabs. The Christian minority, which includes ethnic Armenians, also tends to be secular. Two thirds of the Syrians are Sunnites. The Sunnites of Syria are not as demonstrative in their religious practice as the other Sunnites of the region.
The ruling party has given the Alawites privileges and advantages in politics and the economy. Assad’s extended family also dominates lucrative business. The regime tries to co-opt dissenting people of influence.
Does Bashar al Assad deserve to be trusted to lead change which the revolt is asking for? His professional international training is an asset. When former President Hafez al Assad died in 2000, his son Bashar left his London ophthalmology practice to replace his father. He is the “accidental autocrat”. Hafez al Assad bequeathed Bashar an iron-fisted regime, with many local and foreign enemies. Bashar entered a world in which stability and freedom compete in a zero-sum game.
Assad significant following in Syria should not be dismissed. He is secular with strong national pride and a yearning for social change and Arab unity. His progressive wife is trained in business, active in civil society and popular.
The Achilles heel of the Damascus leader is his cohorts at the helm. Bashar has been controlled and ill advised by a self-serving establishment, in which the military and the business elite are dominant. To survive in power, Assad has to embrace the revolt rather than attempt to discipline it. He should offer immediate, drastic reforms.
To appease the street protesters, Assad has recently dissolved the cabinet, released some political prisoners and promised to lift the law of emergency and to encourage party politics . He has also raised salaries and reduced the price of basic commodities.
However, for the people of the uprising, Assad’s offer is not enough. The protest continues as people demand radical change, including the release of all political prisoners, constitutional change and implementing of free elections. People aspire for having active civic society, vigorous political parties and a free market.
But such a serious level of political reform cannot be implemented by a system that does not trust people. The current regime must be fundamentally reformed. Will Assad have the courage and the backing to challenge the entrenched regime? Assad needs the power of the reformers to counter the self perpetuating establishment.
Many observers warn that disintegration of the Syrian regime could have destructive ramifications for the region. On the other hand, orderly regime reform could have a beneficial impact not only on Syria, but also on Lebanon, Israel, future Palestine, Jordan and Iraq.
Assad ‘s second term ends in three years. He could use this period to oversee regime reform. Will Bashar al-Assad live up to the expectations of a great nation in rapidly changing region?
Regime change in Syria may have wide impact on the entire Middle East. If the changes are genuine and well planned, they may activate the neglected Syrian track of the peace process with Israel; advance conflict resolution between Israel and Palestinians; and establish balanced relations with Lebanon. Creative Syrian reform could also help Hezbollah and Hamas better integrate in Lebanon and Palestine respectively. Reforms from Damascus could contribute to the stability of Iraq- through improved border control- and provide a model for political reform in Iran.
After two weeks of growing street protest, the reaction of President Assad to the uprising in his country is not clear yet. Will his response to the uprising be to lead the reform to save Syria or to dilute Syrian aspirations and continue his father’s patriarchal legacy? His speech on March 30 disappointed many observers. He acknowledged the need for serious reform but gave no specifics on planned action.
While there is sharp debate among Syrians on how best to introduce change, the Syrians generally believe that the regime is the root-cause of oppression and corruption rather than the president. This is not the case in Libya, where Colonel Gaddafi is both the source of trouble and the target of the uprising.
But Assad does not have an easy task in reforming a dynasty he has led for eleven years and his father founded forty- one years ago. Syria is a police state. The shadow of fear hovers over society. Politics is only for the ruling elite; others whisper when they discuss sensitive matters. State news is rhetorical. One hears about thousands of political prisoners and missing persons and learns not to ask probing questions. The emergency law and has been in operation for 48 years.
Religion and politics are separated less by intimidation than by law. The more secular the mosque and the church are, the less their leaders are monitored. Religious authority is limited by the state. Secularism makes the Syrian regime attractive to reformers who realize that sectarianism is a threat to national unity.
The ruling regime is largely made up of the Alawite sect, which constitutes only 15% of the population. In theory, this minority is an offshoot of Shieism. In practice, the Alawites are an ethnic community with a sectarian label. Like the Kurds and the Druze minorities of Syria, the Alawites are among the most secular of Arabs. The Christian minority, which includes ethnic Armenians, also tends to be secular. Two thirds of the Syrians are Sunnites. The Sunnites of Syria are not as demonstrative in their religious practice as the other Sunnites of the region.
The ruling party has given the Alawites privileges and advantages in politics and the economy. Assad’s extended family also dominates lucrative business. The regime tries to co-opt dissenting people of influence.
Does Bashar al Assad deserve to be trusted to lead change which the revolt is asking for? His professional international training is an asset. When former President Hafez al Assad died in 2000, his son Bashar left his London ophthalmology practice to replace his father. He is the “accidental autocrat”. Hafez al Assad bequeathed Bashar an iron-fisted regime, with many local and foreign enemies. Bashar entered a world in which stability and freedom compete in a zero-sum game.
Assad significant following in Syria should not be dismissed. He is secular with strong national pride and a yearning for social change and Arab unity. His progressive wife is trained in business, active in civil society and popular.
The Achilles heel of the Damascus leader is his cohorts at the helm. Bashar has been controlled and ill advised by a self-serving establishment, in which the military and the business elite are dominant. To survive in power, Assad has to embrace the revolt rather than attempt to discipline it. He should offer immediate, drastic reforms.
To appease the street protesters, Assad has recently dissolved the cabinet, released some political prisoners and promised to lift the law of emergency and to encourage party politics . He has also raised salaries and reduced the price of basic commodities.
However, for the people of the uprising, Assad’s offer is not enough. The protest continues as people demand radical change, including the release of all political prisoners, constitutional change and implementing of free elections. People aspire for having active civic society, vigorous political parties and a free market.
But such a serious level of political reform cannot be implemented by a system that does not trust people. The current regime must be fundamentally reformed. Will Assad have the courage and the backing to challenge the entrenched regime? Assad needs the power of the reformers to counter the self perpetuating establishment.
Many observers warn that disintegration of the Syrian regime could have destructive ramifications for the region. On the other hand, orderly regime reform could have a beneficial impact not only on Syria, but also on Lebanon, Israel, future Palestine, Jordan and Iraq.
Assad ‘s second term ends in three years. He could use this period to oversee regime reform. Will Bashar al-Assad live up to the expectations of a great nation in rapidly changing region?
posted by Ghassan Rubeiz at 5:28 PM
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