Has Israel won the war in Gaza ?

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Israel has won the military battle in Gaza but not the peace it desperately needs.

Today, the confidence of Palestinians and Israelis in a land-for-peace settlement is at a historic low. The worst product of fighting in Gaza may not be the human suffering or material damage, but rather the loss of hope in achieving peace.

Time is not on Israel’s side. Israel is drifting toward a risky one-state “solution”. The two-state solution is rapidly disappearing from expectations, as Thomas Friedman argues in his January 25 NY Times column.

Friedman argues that Hamas, on one side, and the extreme right-wing Israelis on the other, have marginalized moderates and nearly killed the only option for peace: two-states, living side by side, with a shared Jerusalem, 1967 borders, internationally supervised security, and compensated or resettled refugees.

In what way has Israel won, or failed in Gaza?

Israel won the war diplomatically but not strategically.

Israel won in public relations. The Gaza war causation was oversimplified and reduced to a parable of self defense: “unprovoked Hamas shells Israeli neighborhoods; to which Israel retaliates in self defense”. In war, people seem to focus on the precipitating events of hostilities: Hamas shelling provokes Israeli air strikes. As a predisposing cause for the Gaza war, the expanding Israeli occupation was regrettably forgotten. Strategically, the Gaza war distanced Israel from its long term security. Hamas has emerged politically stronger.

Israel won the war domestically but not morally.

The majority of Israelis rallied behind the war. Hamas angered Israelis by its indiscriminate and uncalled for shelling of civilians. The world lost some sympathy for Palestinians who delegated Hamas to defend their cause. But as the war dust settled and the Palestinian shocking body count was compared with Israeli victims, the allegation of a just war theory was not totally convincing. Many observers ask if Israel could have resorted to more diplomacy in Gaza before launching such a disproportional war.

Israel won the war militarily but not politically.

Gaza war has indeed weakened Hamas militarily for the moment. The leadership of Hamas was punished and Gaza’s infrastructure was severely damaged. But at what political cost has this military gain been achieved?

After the coming February elections Israel will most likely be governed by a hard-line right-wing cabinet which will run into conflict with a US Administration that plans to demand serious concessions from both sides. Hamas has won political power among Palestinians as a result of perceived “heroism” in its resilience to Israeli attack. It is expected that international policing of borders in Gaza will replace Israeli control. Neither Hamas nor Gaza will remain for too long under Israeli control.

Israel must look for long term solutions; Gaza war was a short term one.