Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Reconciliation crucial for future of Egypt


 
East Meredith, NY

July 14, 2013

Has the recent coup in Egypt served the cause of democracy? Time will tell.

In removing President Morsi from power, the military has swiftly responded to a second round of a popular uprising and to a rapidly worsening economy.  In one year, Morsi managed to accelerate the deterioration of an already dysfunctional socio- economic system: vanishing tourism, runaway inflation, high unemployment, domestic instability and sectarian tension.  The national treasury has been losing a billion dollars a month over the last two and a half years.

If Morsi were left to rule a full four-year term, he would have proven beyond doubt that the Muslim Brothers ‘s system of governance is a failing version of political Islam. This valuable message, the wisdom of separating state from religious institutions, would have been heard in all centers of power in the Arab world.

But it may be unrealistic to expect an economically overburdened and politically troubled nation to wait several years to replace a miserable regime through a new round of elections.

The Generals seem to be more eager than the demonstrators to dispose of Morsi and his party.

Morsi was swiftly deposed and arrested. Hundred of his associates and followers were put in jail.  Media outlets of the Brothers were closed. Dozens were killed and hundreds were injured during the first day of protest against the military takeover.  

The military must rethink its aggressive and oppressive strategy. Demonizing a misguided party is unfair and could ultimately lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy: the Brothers turning into an armed Jihadist militia.

The international community is concerned about the sudden turn of events in Cairo. In a NYT op-ed, Khaled Abou Al Fadl, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, accused the Egyptian army of installing a new dictatorship through a coup d’etat. Referring to Arab dictators, Al Fadl remarked that “They all pointed to their supporters in the streets as the source of their legitimacy and perpetuated autocratic rule in the name of the people’s will.” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/08/opinion/the-perils-of-a-peoples-coup.html?_r=0

The military establishment is rushing the transition and making inconsistent decisions: arresting the leaders of the Brothers and paradoxically inviting their party to participate in the transition cabinet.  Moreover, the military has co-opted the Salafi Noor Party, a Sharia  advocacy group, to insure Islamic presence in the post- Morsi government. The Noor Party leadership is keen on keeping the constitution grounded in strict Sunni Islam, regardless of the urgent need to modernize the state institutions.

The Constitutional Decree, issued on July 8 by the military-appointed Interim President, spells out major steps of a seven-month transition period. First, the constitution will be revised in a few weeks. The revised charter will be put to a referendum.  Parliamentary elections will follow.

The qualifications and the credibility of the drafters are not spelled out. The electoral laws have not been finalized. Zaid Al Ali, an international expert on constitution building, is very critical of the style of this transition.  He says Today, we have no idea how the laws will be drafted or if there will be any mechanism to ensure that it will not be stacked against particular political forces. That is the type of detail that would have been helpful to reassure opponents of the new transition process at this early stage.” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/09/another_egyptian_constitutional_declaration

The Decree implies that in 2014 a new president will be elected, but the time for this election is not specified.

The army has been more careful in the selection of leaders for the transition. Commander in chief Gen. Abdel Fattah Al Sisi has appointed Adly Mansour, the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, as Interim President.  Mansour has chosen Hazem El-Beblawi, a liberal economist, to be the Interim Prime Minister. The Interim President has also assigned Mohamad Al Baradei, a Nobel Peace Laureate to be the Interim Vice President.

How independent from the military will the nearly formed cabinet be is crucial. What will it take for the Muslim Brothers to agree to join the transition? The military has to work much harder to entice the Brothers to join.

In rushing reform, overreacting to dissidence and covertly dominating decision making, the generals may be setting themselves up against strong opposition and unintentionally sowing the seeds of continued instability.

The Muslim Brothers remain popular within grassroots religious communities, particularly in the rural areas.  The religious institutions are also very powerful in this country. Egypt is among the most religious nations in the Arab world. And secular groups are not easily fooled by superficial political change.

Are The Muslim Brothers being driven by the military and the secular opposition to martyrdom? Religious parties often thrive through suffering. The Brothers know that they are not likely to return to power soon, but they may be tempted to start a civil war to survive. Tarek Massoud, an Egyptian  professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, is hopeful that the Brothers will remain committed to a non-violence strategy.

The way the military is treating opponents now does not fit with the spirit of a peaceful transition. No amount of foreign aid would sustain Egypt for long if the engines of the economy remain broken. Stability would activate tourism, an important source of income and an industry which needs a climate of national reconciliation.

The first gesture of problem solving would be the release of all political prisoners, most appropriate in this Holy Month of Ramadan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8 Comments:

Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, tiffany and co jewelry, tiffany jewelry, prada handbags, oakley sunglasses, coach outlet store online, longchamp outlet online, michael kors outlet online, kate spade outlet online, coach purses, tory burch outlet, louboutin shoes, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, cheap oakley sunglasses, michael kors outlet online, ray ban sunglasses, coach outlet, michael kors outlet, louis vuitton handbags, michael kors outlet online, coach outlet, longchamp handbags, ray ban outlet, polo ralph lauren, nike air max, jordan shoes, burberry outlet online, prada outlet, louis vuitton outlet, chanel handbags, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet store, christian louboutin shoes, gucci handbags, christian louboutin outlet, burberry outlet online, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton outlet online, oakley vault, nike free, louis vuitton outlet, kate spade handbags, nike shoes, red bottom shoes

8:30 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

vans pas cher, nike air force, converse pas cher, north face, tn pas cher, true religion, ralph lauren pas cher, sac michael kors, mulberry, lululemon, air max pas cher, hermes pas cher, scarpe hogan, nike roshe run, true religion outlet, lacoste pas cher, ralph lauren, nike air max, michael kors canada, burberry pas cher, air max, nike blazer pas cher, guess pas cher, oakley pas cher, true religion outlet, longchamp, ray ban pas cher, hollister, chaussure louboutin, ray ban uk, longchamp pas cher, louis vuitton pas cher, new balance pas cher, sac vanessa bruno, michael kors uk, nike air max, nike free pas cher, timberland, louis vuitton, north face pas cher, air jordan, sac louis vuitton, hollister, louis vuitton uk, nike free

8:31 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

giuseppe zanotti, herve leger, soccer shoes, reebok shoes, instyler ionic styler, roshe run, babyliss pro, beats headphones, soccer jerseys, ugg, nike trainers, abercrombie and fitch, asics shoes, mcm handbags, nike roshe, north face outlet, ferragamo shoes, barbour, ghd, jimmy choo shoes, ugg soldes, north face jackets, valentino shoes, uggs outlet, longchamp, bottega veneta, wedding dresses, marc jacobs outlet, celine handbags, nike huarache, nfl jerseys, chi flat iron, rolex watches, hollister, new balance outlet, vans outlet, p90x workout, mont blanc pens, abercrombie and fitch, ugg outlet, lululemon outlet, mac cosmetics, insanity workout, birkin bag, uggs on sale

8:33 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

canada goose outlet, converse shoes, nike air max, ugg, hollister clothing, ralph lauren, canada goose, hollister canada, lancel, karen millen, coach outlet, replica watches, iphone 6 case, timberland shoes, uggs canada, gucci, hollister, louboutin, canada goose pas cher, canada goose outlet, oakley, juicy couture outlet, moncler, canada goose, wedding dress, moncler, air max, converse, moncler, canada goose, moncler outlet, supra shoes, louis vuitton canada, parajumpers outlet, montre femme, moncler, ray ban, toms outlet, moncler, canada goose outlet, baseball bats, canada goose uk, vans, ugg boots, juicy couture outlet, moncler

8:34 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

burberry outlet, nike free, oakley sunglasses wholesale, gucci handbags, longchamp outlet, replica watches, oakley sunglasses, nike air max, ray ban sunglasses, christian louboutin uk, ugg boots, nike air max, polo ralph lauren outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, ray ban sunglasses, kate spade outlet, tiffany jewelry, michael kors outlet, uggs outlet, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet, nike outlet, michael kors outlet online, prada handbags, christian louboutin shoes, louis vuitton outlet, christian louboutin, jordan shoes, polo outlet, cheap oakley sunglasses, burberry handbags, christian louboutin outlet, tory burch outlet, michael kors outlet online, longchamp outlet, uggs on sale, longchamp outlet, michael kors outlet store, tiffany and co, prada outlet, ugg boots, chanel handbags, uggs outlet, louis vuitton, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton, louis vuitton outlet, replica watches

12:35 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

michael kors, converse pas cher, new balance, north face uk, true religion outlet, nike roshe, sac hermes, nike tn, true religion jeans, timberland pas cher, vans pas cher, michael kors outlet, mulberry uk, coach purses, nike roshe run uk, nike free uk, lululemon canada, michael kors pas cher, nike blazer pas cher, oakley pas cher, nike air max, polo lacoste, polo ralph lauren, nike air max uk, abercrombie and fitch uk, hollister uk, nike free run, longchamp pas cher, north face, hollister pas cher, hogan outlet, true religion outlet, ralph lauren uk, michael kors, jordan pas cher, air max, sac vanessa bruno, guess pas cher, nike air max uk, kate spade, louboutin pas cher, ray ban uk, ray ban pas cher, burberry pas cher, coach outlet, nike air force, coach outlet store online, sac longchamp pas cher, coach outlet, true religion outlet

12:40 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

vans, ralph lauren, giuseppe zanotti outlet, nike roshe run, ray ban, p90x workout, herve leger, asics running shoes, nike air max, timberland boots, ghd hair, reebok outlet, new balance shoes, north face outlet, iphone 6 cases, mac cosmetics, wedding dresses, nike trainers uk, converse outlet, celine handbags, lululemon, hollister clothing, soccer jerseys, instyler, longchamp uk, converse, soccer shoes, babyliss, insanity workout, beats by dre, gucci, north face outlet, vans outlet, abercrombie and fitch, hermes belt, ferragamo shoes, hollister, bottega veneta, nike huaraches, nike air max, louboutin, jimmy choo outlet, valentino shoes, baseball bats, nfl jerseys, chi flat iron, oakley, mcm handbags, hollister, mont blanc pens

12:45 AM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

karen millen uk, doudoune moncler, canada goose, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton, moncler, moncler, replica watches, pandora uk, pandora charms, swarovski crystal, ugg uk, coach outlet, michael kors handbags, canada goose outlet, moncler, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, ugg, canada goose outlet, marc jacobs, pandora jewelry, lancel, wedding dresses, moncler, moncler outlet, links of london, moncler outlet, barbour uk, canada goose outlet, canada goose uk, doke gabbana, michael kors outlet, barbour, louis vuitton, louis vuitton, canada goose, supra shoes, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, canada goose jackets, canada goose, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, swarovski, hollister, toms shoes, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, pandora jewelry, ugg pas cher, thomas sabo, moncler uk, montre pas cher

12:54 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home