Is the Iran revolt stoppable?

June 22, 200

aldikkani

9

East Meredith, New York,

Today, the people of Iran are on the street not just to protest the results of the elections. The revolt aims to free society from the corrosive authority of clerics in politics.

As public pressure on the regime is mounting the government’s defense of its legitimacy is turning brutal: 17 demonstrators killed so far.

It is still too early to predict if the massive protest in the streets will succeed in bringing about a new government. Regardless of the immediate outcome, public trust in the current political system has largely disappeared.

Globalization of politics is crucial. International support for the plight of the people of Iran is growing exponentially through the media.

Those who see this revolt unstoppable find a radically new set of circumstances for political change: awakening of Iranian society- particularly women, conflict within leadership of clerics and ease of spread of information through modern technology.

But those who see this revolt reversible do not believe that Iran is ready for change, given the heavy weight of tradition, the near even split between the populist and the modernist and the formidable record of the Middle East state to suppress dissent.

Dissenting Iranians deserve moral support from the West but they are hesitant to ask for such support for good reasons. External support of internal resistance may backfire.

If there is regime change in Iran, future relations with its adversaries may change significantly. The Arab-Israeli peace process is particularly sensitive to Israel’s future relation with Iran. Hamas and Hezbollah would soften if Iran’s future regime were to be flexible diplomatically.

Despite their social distance from the West, Iranians would like to be viewed differently by the outside world. They have survived intact a long war that was inflicted on them by Iraq, with Western support.

Iran is searching for ways to build a modern state, but not dreaming of a Western model of statehood. It is important not to judge the Iranian struggle for freedom by Western criteria. Iran is a Middle Eastern country with great appreciation for religion. This street revolt in Iran is not a swing from the sacred to the secular. Islam, as a faith, as a set of principles to relate to God, like Christianity or Judaism, can be harnessed to work for democracy instead of working against it.

In 1979, the people of Iran revolted against their government to be free from excessive international influence, the Shah’s symbiotic dependence on the West. Today, Iranians are on the street in massive numbers demonstrating peacefully against their government; they are continuing the process of state building.

What is happening in Iran has wide international implications. Iran is a pioneer in political change. By contrast, the Arab world is too timid in political reform.

Arabs are afraid to substitute entrenched despotic regimes for unpredictable political systems.

What is happening in Iran these days may have dramatic implications for the future of governance of Iran, itself, and for the debate on political Islam, in the 57 Muslim-majority countries.

Even if this revolt fails to reach its full objectives the next one is coming sooner than expected.