The video and the Arab Spring

 

East Meredith, NY

The California video mocking the Prophet Muhammad threatens the empowerment process of the Arab Spring. The uprisings of the past 20 months  have ousted four Arab dictators by focusing on internal problems, not the foreign “imperialist West” or “Zionism”.

The character of Arab resistance must not regress. Street demonstrations continue to disrupt normal life in one Muslim capital after another. The inspiration to confront glaring social and political ills is being diverted to rhetoric and violence against the outsider: US embassies, the American flag and Kentucky Fried Chicken.  While outsiders are not blameless, priorities must dictate strategy of struggle for justice.

The disproportionate response to the insulting film has given the extreme Islamic groups, the Salafists, those least likely to advance the cause of reform, an opportunity to gain access to power through violence. Using the video as a pretext, the Salafists assaulted the US embassy in Libya. The Libyan, Tunisian and Egyptian regressive groups are threatened by the newly elected secular or moderate Muslim parties.

Overreaction to the video reinforces Western prejudice against Muslims and play into the hands of the film producers who may wish to see Arabs and Americans in constant conflict. 

Arabs cannot afford distraction from the struggle for democratization. They are being taken.  This video is not an isolated incident. There is a cumulative record of prejudice against Islam in the US.  Religious leaders like Pat Robertson, John Hagee and the late Jerry Falwell have for years proclaimed or implied that Islam “is not a religion”, or “our Christian God is not the same God as the Muslim God”.  But let us remember that “my-religion-is-better-than-yours” opinion makers in America have their counterparts among Muslim preachers in Cairo, Tehran and elsewhere. Prejudice is a global commodity.

This crisis - of street violence confronting images of incitement- will gradually dissipate. But the underlying causes of tension remain, and they should be identified. Three issues undermine US-Arab relations: mishandled political conflicts, US military presence on Arab land and growing religious prejudice across cultures. Direct measures to address these causes of Arab-American tension are urgently needed.  Progress in the Arab Spring is bound to contribute to the resolution of these issues.

The anger displayed in response to the video is connected with a neglected central Mideast problem: Palestine. The Israeli occupation of the West Bank makes Israel an adversary to 1.6 billion Muslims and the symbiotic partnership between Washington and Jerusalem frustrates Arabs immensely.  

The Iran nuclear crisis is another souring problem. This problem has currently replaced Palestine as the most sensitive source of regional tension. Israel has managed to shift international concern about its occupation of the West Bank to the “existential” Iranian threat. Middle Easterners prefer their region to be a nuclear-free zone. Israel has the nuclear arsenal. Neither Iran nor Israel should have the nuclear bomb.

The second issue is about America’s dominance. US presence in the Arab world is resented. A biased US Mideast policy makes America feels perpetually insecure. Unfair US foreign policy goes with excessive military and diplomatic presence in the Middle East.  The US is deeply involved in the national security and politics of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arabian Gulf. Washington is still involved in Iraq after twelve exhaustive years of war and counterproductive “nation building”.  At high cost America “fights terrorism” in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.

There are better alternatives to the current US Mideast policy. If Washington places priority on statehood for Palestinians, peace for Israel and support for Arab democratization throughout the region, with no exceptions, there will be less need for US military presence in the area. There will also be no reason to sell massive arms to Arab Kingdoms and Emirates. A region in peace would need no atomic weapons.

To radically improve US-Arab relations creative attention to political conflicts and soft diplomacy are not enough. A third vital component is missing: good will among religious communities across the globe.

Islamophobia is shifting from the fringe to the mainstream of Western society. The same trend of growing intolerance is happening in the Middle East. Muslim societies ignore the spread of anti-Semitism and the literature of cultural and religious triumphalism.

Some Arab and Muslim leaders are calling for UN sponsored legislation against hate speech. But Americans and most Europeans are not ready to limit what they consider sacrosanct freedom of speech.

An interconnected world community should explore ways to spread tolerance, sharpen sensitivity to injustice and celebrate religious and cultural diversity. An international conference to combat religious prejudice in the media and the school curriculum may generate new ideas for dealing with growing tension among religions and cultures.

The Arab Spring is too precarious to be distracted by battles over religious symbols across cultures.

 

Five Scenarios for Syria

 

 

East Meredith, NY

 

War in Syria is not likely to lead to conflict resolution any time soon. An empowered Egyptian regime may play a positive role in the future of Syria and the region.

President Assad continues to hope for a miraculous solution to stay in power.  The Syrian leader refuses to admit that he is part of the problem. Naturally, he is worried about the perilous consequences for his Alawite community after his departure, but the longer he lingers on, the harder it will be for him to exit in peace.

Staggering numbers of civilian victims, floods of refugees, destruction of vital national infrastructure, increased international isolation, erosion of legitimacy and strengthening of the opposition have not yet brought Assad to reality.

The regime continues to justify its ruthless fight with its own people by labeling the opposition as “terrorists” and “sectarian”, and by denouncing “international intervention”. Assad knows better. The Arab Spring is in Syria because his dynasty is not popular; and sectarian tension is partly a product of Alawite dominance. Most Syrians are patriotic; those calling for foreign military intervention feel helpless in facing the brutality of the state.

After a year and a half of strife, the Syrian struggle may soon be entering a third, decisive phase, where sheer force will determine the winner and the loser.  And in this phase there may not be much mercy left among the winners. The revolution has shifted from an initial phase of confrontation between the opposition and the government to a military conflict which required international mediation. And now Syria is in a civil war where Iran, Russia and China back a sinking regime and the US, Turkey, Europe and the Arab Gulf states back an opposition with varied political agendas.

 

There is still hope for a region-based solution for Syria.

Egypt, a leading Arab country, recently declared strong support for the Syrian opposition. In his statement on Syria last week, Egyptian President Morsi stunned the 120 national delegates of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM) summit meeting in Tehran with clear pronouncements. The new President surprised both Iran, the host of the summit, and Israel, a non participant of NAM and a primary adversary of Tehran. On the Syrian regime Morsi was tough: “Our solidarity with the struggle of the Syrian people against an oppressive regime that has lost its legitimacy is an ethical duty as it is a political and strategic necessity”. For Israel the message was subtle: he likened the Syrian uprising to the “brave” Palestinian struggle against the Israeli occupation. He said both groups are “actively seeking freedom, dignity and human justice”.

Despite the assertive stand of Egypt on Syria, Iran’s leaders are eager to mend fences with Egypt’s new president. Both regimes are aware that further deterioration in Syria could widen the sectarian [Sunni- Shiite] rift in the Muslim world and devastate the region. Both regimes are also unhappy with US policy in the Middle East.

The August death toll of 5000 people in Syria is alarming. Hopefully the regime will collapse before the situation is out of control. No one can predict with any certainty the outcome of the course of events in Syria. To illustrate the complexity of possibilities, consider the following five scenarios.  

a.     Obama wins a second term and Russia loses faith in the viability of the Syrian regime: a US-Russian- Arab peace proposal for Syria emerges in early 2013.

 

b.    With the help of the new UN Syria envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, an Iranian- Egyptian initiative arranges a graceful exit for President Assad and a formula for a transitional government. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will have to support the initiative.

 

c.     A coup or a sudden exit of President Assad triggers a transition based on the terms of the rebel coalition.

 

d.     An Israeli attack on Iran or on Lebanon’s Hezbollah distracts international attention from Syria and slows the Arab Spring for some time.

 

e.     The conflict in Syria expands into a Lebanese-type sectarian civil war lasting several years.

A re-elected Obama and the newly empowered Egyptian President may generate new alternatives to the current stalemate in Syria.  Moreover, if Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran can work together on a transition plan for Syria, it would be a welcomed precedent in regional peace-making.