Monday, February 14, 2011

Arabs celebrate the end of an era

Palm Beach Gardens



After Tunisia and Egypt, it is time to celebrate. For decades, the Arabs have been on a course of misguided politics. It is high time to allow talent to lead, privilege to spread and freedom to shine.



Millions of young people dream of a better future. Citizens are no longer scared to think, to ask pivotal questions and imagine the unimaginable. We must affirm dreams, reinforce new found courage and embrace an epic movement. This is not the time for observers to be cynical and suspicious of change.



The people are proud and the despots are shamed. This is how it should be. So much has happened, so fast. Two tyrants were swiftly deposed. Twenty regimes internally tremble. All rulers review their bets on the future. Some relax freedoms and others make compromising promises. A few introduce cosmetic change. Overdue elections suddenly surface. Citizens receive money and the hungry receive bread to keep quiet. And of course, there are those “perfect” regimes who remind us of how privileged it is to be their citizens, and how wise of others to think of change.



This new Middle East era beckons many “firsts”. Political overthrow is peaceful. The youth organize and lead the uprising. Resistance does not project all the blame for grievances on agents beyond national borders. Women play an active role - is this the start of a gender revolution? And finally, mobilized crowds do not exploit religious symbols in addressing injustice. Is God being rightfully taken out of divisive politics?



It is too early to second guess these brave revolutionaries. The agents of change are mindful that the military should be the next layer of authority to be challenged. It seems wise of this fragile movement to have targeted the ruler and his security apparatus first. The time for shaming the military would have to come sooner or later, especially if men with decorated uniforms show the arrogance of deposed rulers.



The process of empowerment should be monitored closely. The awakenings have been largely spontaneous. People had been morally and politically buried alive for decades. The opposition needs time and skill to order priorities, chose leaders and to inhibit opportunists. With inspiration, new leaders will sober the fanatics who would rush with simplistic solutions. With patience they will overcome a deep-rooted mindset of paternalism and sexism. They will stay sensitive to local culture and respectful of faith and tradition. The fundamental, i.e. what makes real difference and benefits all, will have to be liberated from the fundamentalist.

State building takes decades to fully mature; its pattern, direction and pace are not predictable or guaranteed.



The Middle East will never be the same. Desired change is taking place without terror from the inside or surgical wars from the outside.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Egypt in a new critical stage

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz

February 10, 2011, Palm Beach Gardens



Today, Mubarak shocked his people by refusing to step down. There had been strong evidence that the hated president was ready to resign. Dictators do not exit gracefully.

The ailing president spoke to a despising audience with a patriarchal tone. As he announced his partial transfer of power to the vice president, his people lost patience, but not discipline. The mood of the crowds swiftly changed from celebration to rage.

Reflecting on the rapidly changing scene in Cairo, Professor Shibly Talhamy made a profound statement on Rachel Maddox‘s MSNBC talk show: If the demonstrators “win peacefully”, this would be “Bin Laden’s nightmare”. If they lose, “it would be our nightmare”. Most Arab analysts view Egypt’s revolution as a powerful pilot for political transformation. Ben Laden believes violence is the way to reform.

The longer a tyrant stays in office, the more he drowns in a world of denial. Mubarak has lived for thirty years in a perceptually sanitized environment which feeds him disinformation to suit his fancy. It is amazing how Mubarak is unable to sense that his time is over. The president’s defiance and demeanor today illustrates the extent to which Arab society has, for generations, let rulers dismiss the collective power of citizens and underestimate their intelligence.

The awakening in Cairo looks irreversible. Egyptians plan tomorrow to be a decisive day for ending the power of Mubarak.

How the army behaves in the next few hours will be critical. The army has been neutral so far. But as the crowds gain confidence, some elements may be provoked. The army, for example, may be tempted to prevent demonstrators to symbolically occupy strategic state institutions. A military crackdown could easily turn into a bloodbath. Should the army use force against demonstrators, it will poison the precious spirit of this revolution.

Egypt depends heavily on tourism. The country cannot wait too long to return to normalcy.

In a day or two, we will know where the military stands. The men in decorated uniforms have to choose between supporting political reform and preservation of a demoralizing status quo.

In the Arab world, officers and generals live a privileged life, do lucrative business and build fortunes. But at this advanced stage of the revolution, the military are not likely to be the spoilers of reform. Currently, all eyes are on the officers as they affect history.

The days of Mubarak are numbered. How graceful will his exist be?

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Egypt points to Arab political Future

Palm Beach Gardens

In the Arab world, virtually all political rulers live in the shadow of the military. How the military deals with change is crucial.

The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have been miraculous. The masses have discovered the power of coordinated, collective action in a new era of digital communication. Arabs will never be the same: fear of the ruler has dissipated from the street of many capitals. The youth want jobs and justice. But the road to freedom and equality is long and steep.

As we see governments fall and rise with a new face, we must keep in mind that the Arab army is not impressed with street demonstrations.

The Arab world is watching where these two pilot uprisings are heading. Attention has largely shifted from Tunisia to Egypt, the largest Arab country: where Egypt goes, the region tends to follow.

In Tunisia, political change has reached a plateau. There is a new government which is run by a prime minister who was close to the deposed President Ben Ali. Life is returning to normal. The army backs the new government. People are hoping that the newly formed national salvation cabinet will lead the country to a new political order. After this dramatic “intifada”, time will tell how life will be for Tunisians

So far, Egypt largely follows the Tunisia model, with a key difference: the massive presence of the Egyptian military covertly intimidates the opposition and tries to limit demands for change. The sequence of events is more complicated. An uprising shakes the system. The president retreats, but stays in office. A new leader from the old regime is appointed as Vice President. The VP effectively replaces a weakened figurehead. A new cabinet, largely from the military, is formed. Timid concessions are made. The opposition examines concessions and assesses the cost of continuing the struggle, knowing well that the army has the last word.

The Egyptian army is ascendant now because it has monopoly on use of force. The military has covert commitment to the old regime and some vested interest in a corrupt political order. And lastly, the army depends on Washington as a major donor.

Washington heavy investment in the Egyptian army makes it defensive about this “client”. Observe how “kind” Washington is in describing the army action, and how “polite” it is to Mubarak. In contrast, witness how negative Washington is in depicting the Muslim Brothers, a party that has been banned from political activity for decades. The fatal flaw of the Muslim Brothers, as many Americans see it, is mixing religion with politics. It is as though America were free of religious fundamentalism.

The narrow and myopic policy focus in Washington has been on servicing the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel -with big money, equipment and training- without giving the Palestinian and the Syrian peace tracks the attention they deserve. Meanwhile, reliant on Egypt’s pacification, Israel has gone wild in annexing the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and a good part of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Israel’s peace treaty with Egypt looks fragile now, not because Egypt has an organized Muslim political party, but because the 1978 Sadat - Begin peace process was violated and allowed to drift.

Anxiety about future relations between Cairo and Tel- Aviv has sucked up much of the enthusiasm of Washington for an “inconvenient” Arab awakening.

Washington’s misreading of this awakening could derail it and deepen the anger of Arab masses toward Uncle Sam. However, giving this awakening the benefit of the doubt could immensely serve US national interest and cement regional peace.

Leaders of the uprising are right to insist on pressuring Mubarak to leave. The beleaguered 83 year old president insists that this is a “passing storm” of protest of young people, who are “infiltrated by outside agents”. The media report on Egypt as a global event. This intensive reporting feeds the morale of the demonstrators and alert Washington to review its foreign policy priorities.

Egyptians are resilient: patient, peaceful and tolerant of suffering. On the 14th day of this uprising, the opposition issued seven concrete demands: Departure of the president, lifting of emergency rule, dissolution of parliament, formation of unity cabinet, free parliamentary election followed by amending of the constitution, punishment of crimes against the opposition and prosecution of theft of national wealth.

If the demonstrations could last one or two more weeks the army is likely to abandon Mubarak. Should the army lose patience and use force against the persistent demonstrators, it would be a grave miscalculation. There will no winners in a blood bath. The army should be neutral to allow the transition of power to become empowering and transformative.

Many in Egypt and the Arab world are looking for a new political era. However, if the protesters prematurely accept the cosmetic concessions now promised by Vice President Omar Suleiman, they would be delivering the country back to a regime lacking legitimacy.

No clean army would tolerate corruption for too long, except if it is part of it. How far the uprising will go in changing the country depends on how the army views reform. Is reform seen as progress or conflict of interest?